{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2042dacc-252e-4598-9d7e-3ae7443f6878", "symbol": "LU", "name": "Lufax Holding Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.477, "architecture_energy": 31.903, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.615, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.61, "rotation_up": 27.85, "upward_expansion": 23.0, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 25.38, "downward_expansion": 57.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.466667, 1.414364, 1.506667, 1.667914 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.5, "trend_reference": 1.932333, "distance_from_trend": -0.223736, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.334521, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.35747, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.388054, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.480969, "excess_performance": -0.606594, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.223736, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176679, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.35747, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157498, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.443881, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078402, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.480969, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.561833, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2839051, "relative_activity": 0.490977, "balance": 0.561833, "dry_up": 0.50854, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115246, "annualized_volatility": 0.465759, "from_high_reference": -0.671772, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.932333, "fair_value_reference": 2.334521, "structural_low": 1.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.034483, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.04686, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.42268, "worst_return": -0.4261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.126866, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.240773, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.607143, "worst_return": -0.654303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.300161, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.392084, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.18219, "worst_return": -0.469466, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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1.867075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.34, "volume": 1713932, "typical_volume": 6846209.1, "trend": 2.092667, "fair_value": 2.37132, "relative_strength": -51.888306, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.376996, "energy": 74.993319, "activity_lines": [ 1.329333, 1.406364, 1.602667, 1.815677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.39, "volume": 3099625, "typical_volume": 6756961.0, "trend": 2.05, "fair_value": 2.36307, "relative_strength": -48.615804, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.891226, "energy": 63.396805, "activity_lines": [ 1.353333, 1.383636, 1.564619, 1.770344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.38, "volume": 2102766, "typical_volume": 6437250.15, "trend": 2.007667, "fair_value": 2.35137, "relative_strength": -47.91436, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.550445, "energy": 55.270892, "activity_lines": [ 1.37, 1.369273, 1.531381, 1.727118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.56, "volume": 3720987, "typical_volume": 6145638.4, "trend": 1.97, "fair_value": 2.342065, "relative_strength": -40.963001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.951287, "energy": 42.356285, "activity_lines": [ 1.438, 1.396545, 1.520238, 1.698237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.5, "volume": 2839051, "typical_volume": 5782454.85, "trend": 1.932333, "fair_value": 2.334521, "relative_strength": -44.388054, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.477138, "energy": 31.902799, "activity_lines": [ 1.466667, 1.414364, 1.506667, 1.667914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }