{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2044847b-f57b-493d-a5b2-e034c3ee14d8", "symbol": "OHLA", "name": "Obrasc\u00f3n Huarte Lain, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 1.765, "architecture_energy": 15.809, "architecture_maturity": 12.469, "architecture_confidence": 74.017, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.21, "rotation_up": 18.21, "upward_expansion": 43.55, "deceleration": 78.33, "rotation_down": 44.08, "downward_expansion": 37.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.438067, 0.447858, 0.454141, 0.447093 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.4344, "trend_reference": 0.42991, "distance_from_trend": 0.010444, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.384743, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.129067, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.8158, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.223662, "excess_performance": 0.099231, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010444, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063318, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.129067, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071303, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118158, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.187551, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.223662, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.682369, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27052713, "relative_activity": 0.617693, "balance": 0.682369, "dry_up": 1.205005, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074302, "annualized_volatility": 0.384692, "from_high_reference": -0.178828, "from_low_reference": 0.287111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.42991, "fair_value_reference": 0.384743, "structural_low": 0.3565, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.00898, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015199, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.182989, "worst_return": -0.10751, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.004353, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.055662, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.621959, "worst_return": -0.225113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.00871, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.072198, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.594525, "worst_return": -0.194373, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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0.46568, 0.463847, 0.457679, 0.440403 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.467, "volume": 36886561, "typical_volume": 48721219.75, "trend": 0.419503, "fair_value": 0.385637, "relative_strength": -1.843806, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.418666, "energy": 30.632971, "activity_lines": [ 0.46556, 0.465171, 0.459798, 0.443698 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.4416, "volume": 109137814, "typical_volume": 51863337.5, "trend": 0.422623, "fair_value": 0.385668, "relative_strength": -6.42687, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.900466, "energy": 14.92119, "activity_lines": [ 0.457307, 0.461411, 0.459083, 0.445123 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.44, "volume": 30174581, "typical_volume": 48182572.4, "trend": 0.425673, "fair_value": 0.385462, "relative_strength": -8.491674, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.362656, "energy": 10.28045, "activity_lines": [ 0.450267, 0.457753, 0.458032, 0.446245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.4322, "volume": 44734458, "typical_volume": 45347680.0, "trend": 0.42778, "fair_value": 0.38508, "relative_strength": -10.868541, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.571609, "energy": 10.919144, "activity_lines": [ 0.442973, 0.452735, 0.456031, 0.446666 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.4344, "volume": 27052713, "typical_volume": 43796402.4, "trend": 0.42991, "fair_value": 0.384743, "relative_strength": -11.8158, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.764636, "energy": 15.809407, "activity_lines": [ 0.438067, 0.447858, 0.454141, 0.447093 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }