{ "ticker": { "uuid": "204683b3-255a-4a96-a17f-a3e90c26ea11", "symbol": "TGR", "name": "Tirupati Graphite plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.277, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -52.915, "architecture_energy": 82.472, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.598, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.62, "rotation_up": 16.04, "upward_expansion": 27.98, "deceleration": 43.0, "rotation_down": 81.86, "downward_expansion": 71.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.083033, 0.094873, 0.111133, 0.111463 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0775, "trend_reference": 0.10435, "distance_from_trend": -0.257307, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.088279, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.1221, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.788345, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.24, "excess_performance": 0.188765, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.257307, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.153464, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.1221, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.398392, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.167883, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.914186, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.24, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.478765, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4818324, "relative_activity": 0.341145, "balance": 0.478765, "dry_up": 0.820234, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.160695, "annualized_volatility": 1.506562, "from_high_reference": -0.592105, "from_low_reference": 0.24 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.10435, "fair_value_reference": 0.088279, "structural_low": 0.0625, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.302041, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.349093, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.302041, "worst_return": -0.302041, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.306122, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.326508, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.306122, "worst_return": -0.306122, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.622449, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.672554, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.622449, "worst_return": -0.622449, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.744898, "positive_rate": 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"2023-05-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-05-12", "end": "2023-06-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114286, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-06-16", "end": "2023-07-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.135065, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-07-14", "end": "2023-08-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.223881, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-09-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.122449, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.679518, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.74926, "energy": 69.894741, "activity_lines": [ 0.097567, 0.107164, 0.120019, 0.114831 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0775, "volume": 7347472, "typical_volume": 13883058.7, "trend": 0.10385, "fair_value": 0.089641, "relative_strength": -16.490944, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.783472, "energy": 78.631706, "activity_lines": [ 0.088967, 0.100564, 0.115612, 0.113163 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0775, "volume": 4818324, "typical_volume": 14123974.9, "trend": 0.10435, "fair_value": 0.088279, "relative_strength": -16.788345, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -52.915376, "energy": 82.472496, "activity_lines": [ 0.083033, 0.094873, 0.111133, 0.111463 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }