{ "ticker": { "uuid": "20488d51-988b-48eb-958b-9cc76f6d96a7", "symbol": "CLST", "name": "Catalyst Bancorp Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.499, "architecture_energy": 52.722, "architecture_maturity": 17.569, "architecture_confidence": 62.93, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.13, "rotation_up": 70.98, "upward_expansion": 79.38, "deceleration": 57.0, "rotation_down": 10.9, "downward_expansion": 6.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.0671, 16.867145, 16.543838, 16.443417 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.3413, "trend_reference": 16.278043, "distance_from_trend": 0.065318, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.901571, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.344123, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.982516, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.096163, "excess_performance": -0.091291, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065318, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031957, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.344123, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057442, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009825, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053103, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096163, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.276068, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7659, "relative_activity": 0.330163, "balance": 2.276068, "dry_up": 0.509816, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032429, "annualized_volatility": 0.159681, "from_high_reference": -0.045083, "from_low_reference": 0.386195 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.278043, "fair_value_reference": 12.901571, "structural_low": 15.61, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.023022, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.015659, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.094737, "worst_return": -0.067164, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.06296, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.075958, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.179231, "worst_return": -0.101161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.071755, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.130217, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.253475, "worst_return": -0.017413, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": 3.144363, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.416571, "energy": 82.098748, "activity_lines": [ 16.831333, 16.554909, 16.351857, 16.283837 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.6, "volume": 3619, "typical_volume": 26549.7, "trend": 16.17327, "fair_value": 12.834447, "relative_strength": 0.506612, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.19645, "energy": 57.966598, "activity_lines": [ 16.785333, 16.602, 16.379333, 16.313669 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.06, "volume": 11442, "typical_volume": 24398.65, "trend": 16.216937, "fair_value": 12.866371, "relative_strength": 2.537147, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.466277, "energy": 60.417942, "activity_lines": [ 16.881333, 16.719455, 16.449714, 16.370878 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.3413, "volume": 7659, "typical_volume": 23197.6, "trend": 16.278043, "fair_value": 12.901571, "relative_strength": -0.982516, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.499419, "energy": 52.721796, "activity_lines": [ 17.0671, 16.867145, 16.543838, 16.443417 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }