{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2053322b-e249-4bff-9846-53d63077bb18", "symbol": "XCG", "name": "iShares Canadian Growth Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.996, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 31.433, "architecture_energy": 20.362, "architecture_maturity": 6.668, "architecture_confidence": 45.493, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.95, "rotation_up": 48.15, "upward_expansion": 29.8, "deceleration": 38.33, "rotation_down": 24.93, "downward_expansion": 25.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.546667, 65.966923, 65.919719, 66.018883 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 70.139999, "trend_reference": 66.401806, "distance_from_trend": 0.056297, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 59.490494, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.179012, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.847603, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.065151, "excess_performance": -0.05527, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056297, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019177, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.179012, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028779, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078476, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045229, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.065151, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.652812, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20600, "relative_activity": 1.923436, "balance": 1.652812, "dry_up": 1.108777, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024792, "annualized_volatility": 0.225385, "from_high_reference": -0.032548, "from_low_reference": 0.147059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 66.401806, "fair_value_reference": 59.490494, "structural_low": 61.147694, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"energy": 36.79912, "activity_lines": [ 64.973333, 65.194266, 65.550502, 65.875782 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 64.830002, "volume": 8400, "typical_volume": 11150.0, "trend": 66.357302, "fair_value": 59.338534, "relative_strength": -12.418365, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.933025, "energy": 41.867431, "activity_lines": [ 64.861334, 65.09662, 65.480658, 65.774839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 70.139999, "volume": 20600, "typical_volume": 10710.0, "trend": 66.401806, "fair_value": 59.490494, "relative_strength": -7.847603, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.433134, "energy": 20.361553, "activity_lines": [ 66.546667, 65.966923, 65.919719, 66.018883 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }