{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2054dcee-c99e-46cf-86c1-67ecdce844d4", "symbol": "BAB", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II TAXABLE MUN BD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 58.369, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.762, "architecture_energy": 59.595, "architecture_maturity": 4.873, "architecture_confidence": 86.054, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.11, "rotation_up": 10.67, "upward_expansion": 13.21, "deceleration": 37.7, "rotation_down": 65.45, "downward_expansion": 86.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.407997, 26.519415, 26.580483, 26.639028 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 26.43, "trend_reference": 26.721448, "distance_from_trend": -0.010907, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.259573, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.046336, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.725004, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.013733, "excess_performance": -0.139357, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010907, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001665, "read": "Falling" 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26.196121, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.004316, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": 0.003864, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.070758, "worst_return": -0.062652, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.002221, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.037002, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.106913, "worst_return": -0.11926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -5.5e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033708, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.045099, "worst_return": -0.117304, 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"relative_strength": -10.140326, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.311408, "energy": 16.911398, "activity_lines": [ 26.694492, 26.668041, 26.676591, 26.724957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.629912, "volume": 703257, "typical_volume": 906924.25, "trend": 26.763096, "fair_value": 25.200675, "relative_strength": -8.307598, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.411314, "energy": 13.680113, "activity_lines": [ 26.66736, 26.666595, 26.667361, 26.716228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.34, "volume": 953775, "typical_volume": 912288.2, "trend": 26.74888, "fair_value": 25.21906, "relative_strength": -8.552832, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.965314, "energy": 47.191617, "activity_lines": [ 26.546558, 26.6148, 26.63437, 26.688932 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.28, "volume": 1498799, "typical_volume": 934608.25, "trend": 26.73463, "fair_value": 25.238263, "relative_strength": -9.444707, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.91677, "energy": 61.749676, "activity_lines": [ 26.43198, 26.551878, 26.599199, 26.658681 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.43, "volume": 716449, "typical_volume": 936050.2, "trend": 26.721448, "fair_value": 25.259573, "relative_strength": -11.725004, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.762032, "energy": 59.594578, "activity_lines": [ 26.407997, 26.519415, 26.580483, 26.639028 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }