{ "ticker": { "uuid": "20574c90-f221-450e-9eb9-773ced8e167c", "symbol": "CLWT", "name": "Euro Tech Holdings Company Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.23, "architecture_energy": 21.418, "architecture_maturity": 38.949, "architecture_confidence": 88.938, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.01, "rotation_up": 37.77, "upward_expansion": 63.25, "deceleration": 83.64, "rotation_down": 22.13, "downward_expansion": 13.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.57, 1.588364, 1.475262, 1.409698 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.59, "trend_reference": 1.33948, "distance_from_trend": 0.187028, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.382006, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.150502, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.871868, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.325, "excess_performance": 0.137546, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.187028, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107487, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.150502, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.309075, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.068719, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.278247, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.325, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 48.981343, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 83898, "relative_activity": 0.015452, "balance": 48.981343, "dry_up": 0.025801, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.222966, "annualized_volatility": 0.74562, "from_high_reference": -0.406716, "from_low_reference": 0.606059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.33948, "fair_value_reference": 1.382006, "structural_low": 1.0201, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.044586, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.079992, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.108108, "worst_return": -0.119048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.039, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.111883, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.013514, "worst_return": -0.34072, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.06258, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.212404, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.050956, "worst_return": -0.351842, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.21875, 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"start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.139514, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028807, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.295082, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009248, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119048, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.098214, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.745258, "energy": 35.749614, "activity_lines": [ 1.619333, 1.576545, 1.441164, 1.38148 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.49, "volume": 89316, "typical_volume": 5426312.35, "trend": 1.326147, "fair_value": 1.38192, "relative_strength": 5.300705, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.807294, "energy": 27.658565, "activity_lines": [ 1.577333, 1.575818, 1.453905, 1.392675 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.59, "volume": 83898, "typical_volume": 5429613.0, "trend": 1.33948, "fair_value": 1.382006, "relative_strength": 6.871868, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.230235, "energy": 21.417515, "activity_lines": [ 1.57, 1.588364, 1.475262, 1.409698 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }