{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "20575ea5-e6eb-47be-a78d-8fa462d5e298",
    "symbol": "CF1",
    "name": "Amundi CAC Transition Climat UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 48.394,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 80.246,
    "architecture_energy": 54.587,
    "architecture_maturity": 26.651,
    "architecture_confidence": 83.81,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 28.55,
        "rotation_up": 53.07,
        "upward_expansion": 79.65,
        "deceleration": 56.46,
        "rotation_down": 23.34,
        "downward_expansion": 8.65
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        433.736666,
        432.295455,
        425.712382,
        421.360646
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 445.950012,
    "trend_reference": 419.591667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.062819,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 400.406824,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.113742,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -1.583665,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.040602,
    "excess_performance": -0.012709,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.062819,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.001693,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.113742,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.076063,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.015837,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.019115,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.040602,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.800259,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 266,
      "relative_activity": 0.194331,
      "balance": 2.800259,
      "dry_up": 0.313231,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.022735,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.188544,
      "from_high_reference": -0.0101,
      "from_low_reference": 0.188725
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 419.591667,
      "fair_value_reference": 400.406824,
      "structural_low": 375.149994,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.01816,
        "positive_rate": 0.2,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.2,
        "median_excess_return": -0.000783,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.025198,
        "worst_return": -0.065214,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.070141,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.005418,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.09675,
        "worst_return": 0.017463,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.061899,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.00249,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.115902,
        "worst_return": 0.007896,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.059653,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.020543,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.11312,
        "worst_return": 0.006185,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-05-02",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.000741,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.014277,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.00695,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.024444,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.044559,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2025-09-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.025064,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-09-26",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.037697,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-12-05",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0262,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-01-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.018317,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-01-30",
        "end": "2026-02-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.041075,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-06",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.062944,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-05-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.081173,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-05-29",
        "end": "2026-06-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.012675,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-06-19",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.028364,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "fair_value": 395.642401,
        "relative_strength": -3.495175,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -30.507905,
        "energy": 20.14948,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 1732.95,
        "trend": 422.045482,
        "fair_value": 395.812913,
        "relative_strength": -3.667674,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -39.28147,
        "energy": 22.803468,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 412.899994,
        "volume": 770,
        "typical_volume": 1760.95,
        "trend": 420.958332,
        "fair_value": 396.10458,
        "relative_strength": -2.848678,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -32.4618,
        "energy": 17.375476,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "volume": 2494,
        "typical_volume": 1864.0,
        "trend": 420.303333,
        "fair_value": 396.459708,
        "relative_strength": -1.456431,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -7.221593,
        "energy": 7.733778,
        "activity_lines": [
          412.813334,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 420.700012,
        "volume": 164,
        "typical_volume": 1843.55,
        "trend": 420.058333,
        "fair_value": 396.825734,
        "relative_strength": -2.141127,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -4.638075,
        "energy": 11.018986,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 427.450012,
        "volume": 247,
        "typical_volume": 1825.65,
        "trend": 419.675,
        "fair_value": 397.174131,
        "relative_strength": -2.089739,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        "energy": 26.896291,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 433.649994,
        "volume": 125,
        "typical_volume": 1795.5,
        "trend": 419.91,
        "fair_value": 397.639195,
        "relative_strength": -1.448449,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 32.432765,
        "energy": 51.105786,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 430.600006,
        "volume": 10,
        "typical_volume": 1770.35,
        "trend": 419.811667,
        "fair_value": 398.005862,
        "relative_strength": -1.660629,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 28.166406,
        "energy": 54.366914,
        "activity_lines": [
          428.896671,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 438.850006,
        "volume": 21,
        "typical_volume": 1650.25,
        "trend": 420.0,
        "fair_value": 398.518362,
        "relative_strength": -1.180161,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 39.716434,
        "energy": 62.33123,
        "activity_lines": [
          432.880005,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 428.350006,
        "volume": 176,
        "typical_volume": 1605.5,
        "trend": 419.981667,
        "fair_value": 398.878619,
        "relative_strength": -1.532836,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 35.748745,
        "energy": 56.735344,
        "activity_lines": [
          432.246671,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 426.649994,
        "volume": 794,
        "typical_volume": 1485.95,
        "trend": 419.795,
        "fair_value": 399.212272,
        "relative_strength": -1.844229,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 32.578627,
        "energy": 42.243658,
        "activity_lines": [
          430.536668,
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          420.147145,
          418.685593
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 423.149994,
        "volume": 260,
        "typical_volume": 1376.35,
        "trend": 419.596666,
        "fair_value": 399.509067,
        "relative_strength": -2.935441,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 18.928197,
        "energy": 23.561015,
        "activity_lines": [
          427.713332,
          428.199092,
          421.115954,
          418.902044
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 431.299988,
        "volume": 395,
        "typical_volume": 1374.0,
        "trend": 419.544999,
        "fair_value": 399.914836,
        "relative_strength": -2.579787,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.913965,
        "energy": 28.420086,
        "activity_lines": [
          428.306661,
          429.082726,
          422.790238,
          419.657097
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 445.950012,
        "volume": 266,
        "typical_volume": 1368.8,
        "trend": 419.591667,
        "fair_value": 400.406824,
        "relative_strength": -1.583665,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 80.245597,
        "energy": 54.586571,
        "activity_lines": [
          433.736666,
          432.295455,
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          421.360646
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}