{ "ticker": { "uuid": "206117f3-a978-48c5-b8f4-611003efab9b", "symbol": "NKR", "name": "Nekkar ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.193, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.32, "architecture_energy": 22.196, "architecture_maturity": 25.505, "architecture_confidence": 66.511, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.8, "rotation_up": 45.63, "upward_expansion": 65.02, "deceleration": 56.05, "rotation_down": 23.8, "downward_expansion": 17.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.743333, 14.608182, 14.697619, 14.484409 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.75, "trend_reference": 14.085, "distance_from_trend": 0.047213, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.798141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.365976, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.9763, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.199187, "excess_performance": 0.074193, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047213, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063554, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.365976, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141031, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029763, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107194, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.199187, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.311049, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 217695, "relative_activity": 0.568842, "balance": 1.311049, "dry_up": 0.422215, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043807, "annualized_volatility": 0.313461, "from_high_reference": -0.078125, "from_low_reference": 0.565817 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.085, "fair_value_reference": 10.798141, "structural_low": 11.95, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.019704, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.010126, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.102362, "worst_return": -0.114286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.072632, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.012793, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.251969, "worst_return": -0.068571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.199052, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.060618, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.251969, "worst_return": -0.004193, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.347169, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.129275, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.447619, "worst_return": 0.246719, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096033, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.089109, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059322, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation 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"gate": "up", "direction": 31.912537, "energy": 21.88578, "activity_lines": [ 14.45, 14.679091, 14.599048, 14.282473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.15, "volume": 205315, "typical_volume": 475497.9, "trend": 13.85, "fair_value": 10.632564, "relative_strength": 3.250894, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.259652, "energy": 13.212514, "activity_lines": [ 14.363333, 14.543636, 14.57881, 14.305914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.9, "volume": 135612, "typical_volume": 441515.8, "trend": 13.93, "fair_value": 10.687179, "relative_strength": 5.643751, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.394256, "energy": 13.43766, "activity_lines": [ 14.533333, 14.563636, 14.631429, 14.373656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.9, "volume": 87702, "typical_volume": 423269.25, "trend": 14.003333, "fair_value": 10.743462, "relative_strength": 4.749764, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.618292, "energy": 23.726731, "activity_lines": [ 14.686667, 14.594545, 14.676429, 14.436237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.75, "volume": 217695, "typical_volume": 382698.65, "trend": 14.085, "fair_value": 10.798141, "relative_strength": 2.9763, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.319875, "energy": 22.196039, "activity_lines": [ 14.743333, 14.608182, 14.697619, 14.484409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }