{ "ticker": { "uuid": "20643047-7424-4d8f-896c-c50ad12b7998", "symbol": "AQST", "name": "Aquestive Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.77, "architecture_energy": 30.639, "architecture_maturity": 31.085, "architecture_confidence": 63.093, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.1, "rotation_up": 16.27, "upward_expansion": 18.7, "deceleration": 54.95, "rotation_down": 58.21, "downward_expansion": 46.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.858667, 4.009364, 4.086405, 4.07928 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.94, "trend_reference": 3.994167, "distance_from_trend": -0.013561, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.710545, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.061839, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.387171, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.041363, "excess_performance": -0.228816, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013561, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125173, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.061839, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161735, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.273872, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068333, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.041363, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.438335, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9936040, "relative_activity": 1.185143, "balance": 0.438335, "dry_up": 1.160481, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119879, "annualized_volatility": 0.400488, "from_high_reference": -0.478146, "from_low_reference": 0.34471 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.994167, "fair_value_reference": 3.710545, "structural_low": 3.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.071782, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.077108, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.625323, "worst_return": -0.174404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.189917, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.121257, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.576733, "worst_return": -0.146789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.284165, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.194678, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.815789, "worst_return": -0.311881, "sufficient": false }, { 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{ "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.282908, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142045, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.202703, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049708, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.292308, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-21", 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3.687436, "relative_strength": -28.864407, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.49562, "energy": 21.115309, "activity_lines": [ 3.999333, 4.120364, 4.145905, 4.107871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.695, "volume": 10452810, "typical_volume": 8392352.85, "trend": 3.993167, "fair_value": 3.697724, "relative_strength": -28.68337, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.552475, "energy": 31.831196, "activity_lines": [ 3.865, 4.038727, 4.103714, 4.08271 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.94, "volume": 9936040, "typical_volume": 8383832.55, "trend": 3.994167, "fair_value": 3.710545, "relative_strength": -27.387171, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.770122, "energy": 30.639089, "activity_lines": [ 3.858667, 4.009364, 4.086405, 4.07928 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }