{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2068edd6-acc7-47f7-ade5-5467c1f98a16", "symbol": "603598", "name": "Inly Media Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.469, "architecture_energy": 49.637, "architecture_maturity": 29.449, "architecture_confidence": 86.046, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.74, "rotation_up": 18.77, "upward_expansion": 7.15, "deceleration": 52.11, "rotation_down": 59.6, "downward_expansion": 80.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.618, 16.857091, 18.596571, 19.575247 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.07, "trend_reference": 21.320667, "distance_from_trend": -0.152466, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.744808, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.07914, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.713905, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.384746, "excess_performance": -0.341543, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152466, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00342, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.07914, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.467468, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067139, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.259338, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.384746, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.889454, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 151261325, "relative_activity": 2.043025, "balance": 0.889454, "dry_up": 1.068731, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124771, "annualized_volatility": 0.600412, "from_high_reference": -0.475928, "from_low_reference": 0.284293 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.320667, "fair_value_reference": 16.744808, "structural_low": 14.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.017104, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.012645, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.228669, "worst_return": -0.218718, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.07816, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.041638, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 1.739042, "worst_return": -0.146654, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.3379, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.222277, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.196738, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"relative_strength": -19.375104, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.643739, "energy": 83.150871, "activity_lines": [ 16.444667, 17.946546, 19.518476, 20.485161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.62, "volume": 45081231, "typical_volume": 70024573.9, "trend": 21.255667, "fair_value": 16.65391, "relative_strength": -22.417624, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.502543, "energy": 83.975204, "activity_lines": [ 15.64, 17.064727, 18.998714, 20.052688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.07, "volume": 62577875, "typical_volume": 69760673.35, "trend": 21.284667, "fair_value": 16.694808, "relative_strength": -9.633718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.478005, "energy": 66.186005, "activity_lines": [ 15.960667, 16.823091, 18.743857, 19.782645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.07, "volume": 151261325, "typical_volume": 74037939.4, "trend": 21.320667, "fair_value": 16.744808, "relative_strength": -6.713905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.469367, "energy": 49.637086, "activity_lines": [ 16.618, 16.857091, 18.596571, 19.575247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }