{ "ticker": { "uuid": "206d681c-dbe2-4cf0-a092-75bd6c525dc1", "symbol": "HEGR", "name": "Hedera Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.099, "architecture_energy": 34.814, "architecture_maturity": 63.568, "architecture_confidence": 87.294, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.45, "rotation_up": 25.24, "upward_expansion": 4.36, "deceleration": 56.53, "rotation_down": 42.67, "downward_expansion": 75.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.4916, 0.492345, 0.51159, 0.541503 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.496, "trend_reference": 0.582133, "distance_from_trend": -0.147962, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.394216, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.853869, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.244681, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.236923, "excess_performance": -0.298417, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.147962, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08205, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.853869, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013722, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.332447, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125512, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.236923, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.722161, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53856, "relative_activity": 0.217252, "balance": 0.722161, "dry_up": 1.335516, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125775, "annualized_volatility": 0.536605, "from_high_reference": -0.463784, "from_low_reference": 0.175355 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.582133, "fair_value_reference": 3.394216, "structural_low": 0.44, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.029035, "positive_rate": 0.27027, "directional_follow_through": 0.648649, "median_excess_return": -0.043897, "regime_survival": 0.891892, "best_return": 0.302703, "worst_return": -0.477273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.081483, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.130727, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.748148, "worst_return": -0.613636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.170799, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.339104, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.673228, "worst_return": -0.681818, "sufficient": true }, { 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"direction": -57.23816, "energy": 53.718719, "activity_lines": [ 0.4928, 0.510491, 0.539367, 0.56923 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.474, "volume": 975883, "typical_volume": 233313.45, "trend": 0.5976, "fair_value": 3.553492, "relative_strength": -36.38915, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.084849, "energy": 53.607879, "activity_lines": [ 0.485867, 0.501964, 0.529776, 0.561071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.45, "volume": 145683, "typical_volume": 240204.65, "trend": 0.5901, "fair_value": 3.499769, "relative_strength": -39.465974, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.122079, "energy": 64.12796, "activity_lines": [ 0.472667, 0.490273, 0.518881, 0.551548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.525, "volume": 148859, "typical_volume": 247334.35, "trend": 0.5866, "fair_value": 3.446775, "relative_strength": -29.15517, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.188355, "energy": 38.865967, "activity_lines": [ 0.4878, 0.493855, 0.516224, 0.547348 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.496, "volume": 53856, "typical_volume": 247896.9, "trend": 0.582133, "fair_value": 3.394216, "relative_strength": -33.244681, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.098714, "energy": 34.814141, "activity_lines": [ 0.4916, 0.492345, 0.51159, 0.541503 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }