{ "ticker": { "uuid": "20737bd0-d9cc-40b7-97b0-7461f3896535", "symbol": "TPCH", "name": "TPC Power Holding Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.926, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.877, "architecture_energy": 27.761, "architecture_maturity": 56.733, "architecture_confidence": 77.936, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.48, "rotation_up": 26.63, "upward_expansion": 20.15, "deceleration": 46.06, "rotation_down": 34.96, "downward_expansion": 61.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.422667, 1.416909, 1.454619, 1.52071 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.41, "trend_reference": 1.584667, "distance_from_trend": -0.110223, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.916472, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.639982, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.768009, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.101911, "excess_performance": -0.294236, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.110223, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020198, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.639982, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032892, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.34768, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001411, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.101911, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.482792, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2108400, "relative_activity": 0.670068, "balance": 1.482792, "dry_up": 0.962993, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078014, "annualized_volatility": 0.663191, "from_high_reference": -0.526846, "from_low_reference": 0.355769 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.584667, "fair_value_reference": 3.916472, "structural_low": 1.34, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.034336, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.031399, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.274074, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.044624, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.033078, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.315385, "worst_return": -0.535714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.108129, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.093192, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.235382, "worst_return": -0.468504, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.43, "volume": 2275200, "typical_volume": 5325555.0, "trend": 1.588333, "fair_value": 3.978563, "relative_strength": -37.745629, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.590782, "energy": 31.510099, "activity_lines": [ 1.433333, 1.420727, 1.486048, 1.544624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.4, "volume": 1172300, "typical_volume": 4399050.0, "trend": 1.592333, "fair_value": 3.945377, "relative_strength": -36.975001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.420288, "energy": 30.67795, "activity_lines": [ 1.426667, 1.417273, 1.468429, 1.532473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.41, "volume": 2108400, "typical_volume": 3146545.0, "trend": 1.584667, "fair_value": 3.916472, "relative_strength": -34.768009, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.876915, "energy": 27.760983, "activity_lines": [ 1.422667, 1.416909, 1.454619, 1.52071 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }