{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2074aa57-e419-4e7c-8e61-17179eaf4cd3", "symbol": "002444", "name": "Hangzhou Greatstar Industrial Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.923, "architecture_energy": 45.266, "architecture_maturity": 22.187, "architecture_confidence": 94.165, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.96, "rotation_up": 17.42, "upward_expansion": 10.18, "deceleration": 40.24, "rotation_down": 55.82, "downward_expansion": 78.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.436667, 29.923783, 30.797836, 31.381913 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 30.040001, "trend_reference": 32.558014, "distance_from_trend": -0.077339, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.344161, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.098589, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.508179, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.128012, "excess_performance": -0.135411, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077339, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027651, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.098589, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.267462, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105082, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044423, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.128012, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.293444, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57277460, "relative_activity": 0.982783, "balance": 0.293444, "dry_up": 1.231563, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091186, "annualized_volatility": 0.356674, "from_high_reference": -0.233282, "from_low_reference": 0.139605 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.558014, "fair_value_reference": 27.344161, "structural_low": 26.360001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.02832, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.048011, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.33291, "worst_return": -0.277113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.09466, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.101062, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.416982, "worst_return": -0.362302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.071731, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.055831, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.278025, "worst_return": -0.135318, "sufficient": 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31.696478, 31.925369, 32.589057 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 29.879999, "volume": 111203703, "typical_volume": 57008655.65, "trend": 33.347347, "fair_value": 27.151256, "relative_strength": -17.347215, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.629701, "energy": 33.150798, "activity_lines": [ 30.978936, 31.252, 31.692224, 32.354024 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.93, "volume": 86887838, "typical_volume": 59167866.45, "trend": 33.08768, "fair_value": 27.201757, "relative_strength": -11.696614, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.838533, "energy": 34.51829, "activity_lines": [ 30.362, 30.704913, 31.397984, 32.069034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.950001, "volume": 74839733, "typical_volume": 60462739.75, "trend": 32.802014, "fair_value": 27.24098, "relative_strength": -14.536865, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.534943, "energy": 40.939161, "activity_lines": [ 29.503334, 30.10848, 31.042697, 31.737571 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.940001, "volume": 68101355, "typical_volume": 59444283.75, "trend": 32.690681, "fair_value": 27.293083, "relative_strength": -6.535516, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.245724, "energy": 50.252171, "activity_lines": [ 29.416667, 29.988225, 30.907361, 31.552925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.040001, "volume": 57277460, "typical_volume": 58280895.15, "trend": 32.558014, "fair_value": 27.344161, "relative_strength": -10.508179, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.923344, "energy": 45.265971, "activity_lines": [ 29.436667, 29.923783, 30.797836, 31.381913 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }