{ "ticker": { "uuid": "207772a1-461a-4775-be8f-5711f33af7fb", "symbol": "VAU", "name": "VLTMINLTD FPO [VAU]", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 55.626, "architecture_energy": 58.182, "architecture_maturity": 26.894, "architecture_confidence": 72.841, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.26, "rotation_up": 68.31, "upward_expansion": 58.15, "deceleration": 24.91, "rotation_down": 17.43, "downward_expansion": 18.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.129333, 4.895455, 4.697, 4.691886 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.84, "trend_reference": 4.821746, "distance_from_trend": 0.21118, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.136248, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.862098, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.217384, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.165637, "excess_performance": 0.101931, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.21118, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024083, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.862098, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.210051, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.182174, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061643, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.165637, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.008231, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32601624, "relative_activity": 1.307053, "balance": 1.008231, "dry_up": 1.271732, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086934, "annualized_volatility": 0.633176, "from_high_reference": -0.06009, "from_low_reference": 1.277475 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.821746, "fair_value_reference": 3.136248, "structural_low": 3.585, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.05303, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.033219, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.333334, "worst_return": -0.228572, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.155983, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.171312, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.36842, "worst_return": -0.28, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.473684, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.445898, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.700078, "worst_return": -0.26, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.064935, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.012048, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088607, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.080808, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": 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4.647064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.87, "volume": 34837020, "typical_volume": 24786346.6, "trend": 4.87336, "fair_value": 3.038556, "relative_strength": 7.873829, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.976478, "energy": 13.815475, "activity_lines": [ 4.656667, 4.517818, 4.501882, 4.645974 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.62, "volume": 36911188, "typical_volume": 25486747.1, "trend": 4.850164, "fair_value": 3.059952, "relative_strength": 1.545241, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.589401, "energy": 14.527561, "activity_lines": [ 4.677333, 4.542, 4.507419, 4.629628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.85, "volume": 29299099, "typical_volume": 25624625.75, "trend": 4.832991, "fair_value": 3.08344, "relative_strength": 5.870757, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.237732, "energy": 12.299121, "activity_lines": [ 4.734, 4.609455, 4.540476, 4.629617 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.77, "volume": 28070475, "typical_volume": 25881488.15, "trend": 4.811836, "fair_value": 3.107031, "relative_strength": 0.796439, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.091165, "energy": 14.059058, "activity_lines": [ 4.760667, 4.658545, 4.567381, 4.625553 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.84, "volume": 32601624, "typical_volume": 24942840.9, "trend": 4.821746, "fair_value": 3.136248, "relative_strength": 18.217384, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 55.625561, "energy": 58.182168, "activity_lines": [ 5.129333, 4.895455, 4.697, 4.691886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }