{ "ticker": { "uuid": "209632c7-d371-4143-bc98-ce7302908872", "symbol": "603615", "name": "Chahua Modern Housewares Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.275, "architecture_energy": 65.712, "architecture_maturity": 58.986, "architecture_confidence": 86.268, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.96, "rotation_up": 12.54, "upward_expansion": 13.28, "deceleration": 41.31, "rotation_down": 69.04, "downward_expansion": 86.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.437333, 16.127067, 17.561525, 18.464379 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.26, "trend_reference": 20.007887, "distance_from_trend": -0.18732, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.565114, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.124164, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.80606, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.341967, "excess_performance": -0.298763, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.18732, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111311, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.124164, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.358807, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.258061, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12704, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.341967, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.597299, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13612378, "relative_activity": 0.710236, "balance": 0.597299, "dry_up": 1.041448, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127261, "annualized_volatility": 0.543739, "from_high_reference": -0.452156, "from_low_reference": 0.190337 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.007887, "fair_value_reference": 18.565114, "structural_low": 13.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.040983, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.031489, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.177635, "worst_return": -0.204136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.034054, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.044719, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.273148, "worst_return": -0.134425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.076852, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.026941, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.154356, "worst_return": -0.116308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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19.881877 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.94, "volume": 29710014, "typical_volume": 20200143.75, "trend": 20.80722, "fair_value": 18.448839, "relative_strength": -30.411102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.384361, "energy": 68.957726, "activity_lines": [ 16.625334, 17.461253, 18.594334, 19.48483 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.48, "volume": 21285100, "typical_volume": 20543630.05, "trend": 20.514553, "fair_value": 18.481861, "relative_strength": -32.785784, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.484233, "energy": 64.863148, "activity_lines": [ 15.784667, 16.739276, 18.148969, 19.076623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.01, "volume": 15234111, "typical_volume": 20218508.65, "trend": 20.24522, "fair_value": 18.519797, "relative_strength": -30.092715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.558945, "energy": 73.91862, "activity_lines": [ 15.363333, 16.26048, 17.783462, 18.72149 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.26, "volume": 13612378, "typical_volume": 19165999.3, "trend": 20.007887, "fair_value": 18.565114, "relative_strength": -25.80606, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.274718, "energy": 65.711821, "activity_lines": [ 15.437333, 16.127067, 17.561525, 18.464379 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }