{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2099722e-8ef7-4c88-b926-39397104b69b", "symbol": "AIVC", "name": "AMPLIFY BLOOMBERG AI EQUAL WEIGHT ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.405, "architecture_energy": 24.494, "architecture_maturity": 79.902, "architecture_confidence": 90.969, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.58, "rotation_up": 29.24, "upward_expansion": 58.38, "deceleration": 88.24, "rotation_down": 27.51, "downward_expansion": 19.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 105.629187, 106.930345, 105.147578, 98.518891 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 111.0409, "trend_reference": 89.81866, "distance_from_trend": 0.236279, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 56.406777, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.968574, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 26.115246, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.560028, "excess_performance": 0.434403, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.236279, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.178062, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.968574, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049899, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.261152, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133373, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.560028, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.707454, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47445, "relative_activity": 0.548021, "balance": 0.707454, "dry_up": 0.578053, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087616, "annualized_volatility": 0.35937, "from_high_reference": -0.106167, "from_low_reference": 1.055403 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 89.81866, "fair_value_reference": 56.406777, "structural_low": 65.2301, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.020647, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.00146, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.104697, "worst_return": -0.038194, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.00489, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024162, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.087142, "worst_return": -0.19519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.12334, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.048343, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.596826, "worst_return": -0.27936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002637, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.188894, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.229315, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114003, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.203764, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007953, 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99.612402, 92.285541 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 110.71, "volume": 67292, "typical_volume": 79395.45, "trend": 85.109604, "fair_value": 54.670128, "relative_strength": 33.342329, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.424056, "energy": 55.490826, "activity_lines": [ 110.43254, 110.276782, 101.53864, 94.03072 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 101.51, "volume": 84466, "typical_volume": 82687.2, "trend": 86.252714, "fair_value": 55.087102, "relative_strength": 23.139249, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.078287, "energy": 35.70494, "activity_lines": [ 107.136333, 108.95926, 102.407469, 95.08881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 101.2611, "volume": 34309, "typical_volume": 83934.55, "trend": 87.344947, "fair_value": 55.497362, "relative_strength": 22.52261, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.912899, "energy": 25.397799, "activity_lines": [ 104.461033, 107.599047, 103.114264, 96.057093 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 102.93, "volume": 33960, "typical_volume": 85190.2, "trend": 88.46808, "fair_value": 55.921089, "relative_strength": 22.143941, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.571046, "energy": 22.224457, "activity_lines": [ 103.465293, 106.50916, 103.82415, 97.06258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 111.0409, "volume": 47445, "typical_volume": 86575.1, "trend": 89.81866, "fair_value": 56.406777, "relative_strength": 26.115246, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.404951, "energy": 24.493863, "activity_lines": [ 105.629187, 106.930345, 105.147578, 98.518891 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }