{ "ticker": { "uuid": "209da8ad-5a4c-429b-9e60-49cd88ccdfbd", "symbol": "301182", "name": "Henan Carve Electronics Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.173, "architecture_energy": 33.014, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 47.695, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.26, "rotation_up": 16.73, "upward_expansion": 18.72, "deceleration": 70.09, "rotation_down": 63.78, "downward_expansion": 41.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 63.596001, 75.162546, 77.893191, 73.605613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 72.400002, "trend_reference": 66.230334, "distance_from_trend": 0.093155, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.88609, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.017495, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 32.047119, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.919406, "excess_performance": 0.912006, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093155, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.2835, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.017495, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.234213, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.320471, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033996, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.919406, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.027433, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29904823, "relative_activity": 1.69022, "balance": 1.027433, "dry_up": 1.191437, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.245633, "annualized_volatility": 1.089876, "from_high_reference": -0.405339, "from_low_reference": 1.291139 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 66.230334, "fair_value_reference": 35.88609, "structural_low": 37.689999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.023296, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.011828, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.736196, "worst_return": -0.520566, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.007334, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.05109, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.737506, "worst_return": -0.565848, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.201168, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.304294, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.918262, "worst_return": -0.226312, "sufficient": false 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60.36075, "activity_lines": [ 98.146666, 93.389636, 82.893905, 74.426538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 66.0, "volume": 18016219, "typical_volume": 18216533.9, "trend": 64.392334, "fair_value": 35.185705, "relative_strength": 27.338543, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.208026, "energy": 30.667892, "activity_lines": [ 87.826666, 89.261091, 82.148238, 74.597032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 56.02, "volume": 18571238, "typical_volume": 18009291.1, "trend": 64.977, "fair_value": 35.398462, "relative_strength": 7.23584, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.10377, "energy": 15.891584, "activity_lines": [ 75.26, 83.382363, 80.380619, 74.056882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.82, "volume": 17827399, "typical_volume": 17376150.0, "trend": 65.237667, "fair_value": 35.570577, "relative_strength": -1.432972, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.312483, "energy": 39.863948, "activity_lines": [ 63.958666, 76.928363, 78.091524, 73.143527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 72.400002, "volume": 29904823, "typical_volume": 17692855.2, "trend": 66.230334, "fair_value": 35.88609, "relative_strength": 32.047119, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.172634, "energy": 33.01385, "activity_lines": [ 63.596001, 75.162546, 77.893191, 73.605613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }