{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "209ed7e5-d7cf-411f-a3ea-6b01cb2697d8",
    "symbol": "SPYG",
    "name": "STATE STREET SPDR PORTFOLIO S&P 500 GROWTH ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 71.735,
    "architecture_energy": 41.876,
    "architecture_maturity": 35.923,
    "architecture_confidence": 65.274,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 31.66,
        "rotation_up": 45.65,
        "upward_expansion": 76.16,
        "deceleration": 67.97,
        "rotation_down": 26.1,
        "downward_expansion": 5.16
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        118.736,
        118.014784,
        117.061339,
        114.151242
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 123.02,
    "trend_reference": 110.811981,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.110169,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 87.480769,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.406252,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 1.68613,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.17358,
    "excess_performance": 0.047955,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.110169,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.035999,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.406252,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.01579,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.016861,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.009076,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.17358,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.796255,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 15103754,
      "relative_activity": 1.020227,
      "balance": 1.796255,
      "dry_up": 0.924721,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.039369,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.209881,
      "from_high_reference": -0.008223,
      "from_low_reference": 0.314176
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 110.811981,
      "fair_value_reference": 87.480769,
      "structural_low": 93.61,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.048161,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.000266,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.104349,
        "worst_return": -0.049811,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.078289,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.00684,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.150683,
        "worst_return": 0.01174,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.168013,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.022661,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.184927,
        "worst_return": -0.004483,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.239915,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.035483,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.302372,
        "worst_return": -0.215316,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.002098,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.078043,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-27",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.000888,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.022841,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.175633,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.021177,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.052301,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-02-06",
        "tenure": "Extended",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.00864,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "return": 0.130359,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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      {
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 86.01006,
        "relative_strength": 1.625112,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 116.25,
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        "typical_volume": 18929843.1,
        "trend": 109.722761,
        "fair_value": 86.36602,
        "relative_strength": -0.010431,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "direction": 43.985965,
        "energy": 32.491207,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 114.96,
        "volume": 8954308,
        "typical_volume": 16913326.25,
        "trend": 109.953081,
        "fair_value": 86.708431,
        "relative_strength": -0.534194,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.746536,
        "energy": 29.549343,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 117.14,
        "volume": 18797062,
        "typical_volume": 15448031.1,
        "trend": 110.304006,
        "fair_value": 87.075125,
        "relative_strength": 0.251806,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.885729,
        "energy": 27.306339,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 123.02,
        "volume": 15103754,
        "typical_volume": 14804307.1,
        "trend": 110.811981,
        "fair_value": 87.480769,
        "relative_strength": 1.68613,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.734908,
        "energy": 41.87637,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}