{ "ticker": { "uuid": "20a01fc5-76c9-49c4-b39a-fff40529afa0", "symbol": "ME8U", "name": "Mapletree Industrial Trust", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.373, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.246, "architecture_energy": 30.622, "architecture_maturity": 23.257, "architecture_confidence": 94.778, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.64, "rotation_up": 23.36, "upward_expansion": 3.31, "deceleration": 52.77, "rotation_down": 45.31, "downward_expansion": 76.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.916385, 1.917232, 1.929439, 1.940155 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.92, "trend_reference": 1.959542, "distance_from_trend": -0.020179, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.979291, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.029955, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.53247, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.039193, "excess_performance": -0.194028, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020179, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00993, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.029955, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01709, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.185325, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089144, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.039193, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.660402, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30639100, "relative_activity": 1.054521, "balance": 0.660402, "dry_up": 1.034903, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020406, "annualized_volatility": 0.110865, "from_high_reference": -0.098238, "from_low_reference": 0.021443 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.959542, "fair_value_reference": 1.979291, "structural_low": 1.879693, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.020408, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.304348, "median_excess_return": 0.001683, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.096331, "worst_return": -0.076258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.03258, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.019323, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.138907, "worst_return": -0.062402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.002853, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.072204, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.059378, "worst_return": -0.091246, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009804, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001359, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035175, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013774, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034314, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02791, "active": false }, 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"down", "direction": -58.355777, "energy": 40.272937, "activity_lines": [ 1.924197, 1.931898, 1.945278, 1.957715 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.909217, "volume": 31650800, "typical_volume": 29601665.0, "trend": 1.970534, "fair_value": 1.978619, "relative_strength": -17.318149, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.877991, "energy": 52.138819, "activity_lines": [ 1.916707, 1.92707, 1.940896, 1.953633 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.909217, "volume": 20560400, "typical_volume": 29556170.0, "trend": 1.968251, "fair_value": 1.978723, "relative_strength": -17.512471, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.379659, "energy": 57.873634, "activity_lines": [ 1.911269, 1.922789, 1.936984, 1.949677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.899376, "volume": 25991900, "typical_volume": 28517860.0, "trend": 1.96564, "fair_value": 1.978655, "relative_strength": -18.671126, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.916971, "energy": 55.632341, "activity_lines": [ 1.905937, 1.917459, 1.932607, 1.945234 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.93, "volume": 43085100, "typical_volume": 28916980.0, "trend": 1.963081, "fair_value": 1.979059, "relative_strength": -17.517198, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.962041, "energy": 40.857274, "activity_lines": [ 1.91352, 1.918073, 1.931477, 1.942934 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.92, "volume": 30639100, "typical_volume": 29055005.0, "trend": 1.959542, "fair_value": 1.979291, "relative_strength": -18.53247, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.246092, "energy": 30.621953, "activity_lines": [ 1.916385, 1.917232, 1.929439, 1.940155 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }