{ "ticker": { "uuid": "20ad8708-1f23-4c8c-b72f-7f1915f56503", "symbol": "300854", "name": "ShenZhen GAD Environmental Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.025, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.96, "architecture_energy": 55.042, "architecture_maturity": 16.646, "architecture_confidence": 69.071, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.31, "rotation_up": 14.67, "upward_expansion": 26.15, "deceleration": 50.9, "rotation_down": 68.11, "downward_expansion": 53.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.885333, 17.756545, 21.176408, 21.160697 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.52, "trend_reference": 20.209333, "distance_from_trend": -0.133074, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.396335, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.413321, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.033115, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.081005, "excess_performance": 0.073605, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.133074, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.142428, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.413321, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.836263, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010331, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.437046, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.081005, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.383403, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61833839, "relative_activity": 1.586526, "balance": 1.383403, "dry_up": 1.359529, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.244876, "annualized_volatility": 0.879856, "from_high_reference": -0.48227, "from_low_reference": 0.623296 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.209333, "fair_value_reference": 12.396335, "structural_low": 11.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.186043, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.161099, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.270148, "worst_return": 0.101939, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.625391, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.579543, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.625391, "worst_return": 0.625391, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.258912, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 1.049808, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.258912, "worst_return": 1.258912, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.52056, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018498, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00625, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.228766, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153437, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.419012, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"relative_strength": -7.072643, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -12.13923, "energy": 31.02133, "activity_lines": [ 20.328, 23.873195, 23.888932, 22.316215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.25, "volume": 39337694, "typical_volume": 34242508.35, "trend": 19.821762, "fair_value": 12.315798, "relative_strength": -15.893746, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.28736, "energy": 48.499213, "activity_lines": [ 17.522667, 21.82548, 23.074632, 21.962829 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.34, "volume": 52540025, "typical_volume": 35185122.45, "trend": 19.905, "fair_value": 12.335404, "relative_strength": -15.643121, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.361295, "energy": 64.428819, "activity_lines": [ 15.894, 20.00387, 22.290809, 21.609167 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.46, "volume": 58235549, "typical_volume": 37134314.05, "trend": 20.026285, "fair_value": 12.360302, "relative_strength": -7.75653, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.291547, "energy": 63.405422, "activity_lines": [ 15.402667, 18.583091, 21.631558, 21.322393 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.52, "volume": 61833839, "typical_volume": 38974372.75, "trend": 20.209333, "fair_value": 12.396335, "relative_strength": -1.033115, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.959768, "energy": 55.042479, "activity_lines": [ 15.885333, 17.756545, 21.176408, 21.160697 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }