{ "ticker": { "uuid": "20b1e28b-c8fb-43f3-8b4c-44c380ede7dc", "symbol": "OBAB", "name": "Online Brands Nordic AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.675, "architecture_energy": 20.52, "architecture_maturity": 85.938, "architecture_confidence": 73.827, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.11, "rotation_up": 27.43, "upward_expansion": 19.28, "deceleration": 46.46, "rotation_down": 27.15, "downward_expansion": 57.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.6, 11.42, 11.602143, 11.993763 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.95, "trend_reference": 13.0, "distance_from_trend": -0.080769, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.700962, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.127798, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.544694, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.297059, "excess_performance": -0.358553, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.080769, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092601, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.127798, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021863, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.215447, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032078, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.297059, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.183971, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15870, "relative_activity": 0.764477, "balance": 1.183971, "dry_up": 1.016279, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061152, "annualized_volatility": 0.310395, "from_high_reference": -0.371053, "from_low_reference": 0.154589 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.0, "fair_value_reference": 13.700962, "structural_low": 10.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": 0.007009, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.493088, "worst_return": -0.28, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.005413, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018624, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.436364, "worst_return": -0.257819, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.211656, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.060117, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.460843, "worst_return": -0.368687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.035703, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036603, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.24498, "worst_return": -0.415053, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.114198, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.211039, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.380522, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031847, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016287, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042904, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.092784, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082031, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.075, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147059, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.02449, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.5, "volume": 978, "typical_volume": 16681.9, "trend": 17.005, "fair_value": 24.047427, "relative_strength": -36.95248, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"2026-06-12", "close": 11.4, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 17230.8, "trend": 14.246667, "fair_value": 13.850321, "relative_strength": -24.426055, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.662811, "energy": 78.196588, "activity_lines": [ 11.616667, 11.941818, 12.323095, 13.247957 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 11.2, "volume": 2380, "typical_volume": 16230.5, "trend": 14.158333, "fair_value": 13.838782, "relative_strength": -26.775673, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.997353, "energy": 80.556971, "activity_lines": [ 11.416667, 11.774545, 12.137381, 13.051398 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 11.35, "volume": 5660, "typical_volume": 15380.9, "trend": 14.03, "fair_value": 13.827244, "relative_strength": -24.793256, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.874474, "energy": 71.979369, "activity_lines": [ 11.34, 11.650909, 11.997857, 12.870215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.9, "volume": 100897, "typical_volume": 19399.2, "trend": 13.891667, "fair_value": 13.801282, "relative_strength": -29.338354, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.061404, "energy": 58.027284, "activity_lines": [ 11.173333, 11.468182, 11.842381, 12.66828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.05, "volume": 87066, "typical_volume": 21138.95, "trend": 13.693333, "fair_value": 13.776282, "relative_strength": -26.44807, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.19997, "energy": 52.335937, "activity_lines": [ 11.113333, 11.337273, 11.731429, 12.484946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.2, "volume": 15723, "typical_volume": 20273.0, "trend": 13.556667, "fair_value": 13.755128, "relative_strength": -24.19399, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.239742, "energy": 51.209781, "activity_lines": [ 11.12, 11.264545, 11.65119, 12.324086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.6, "volume": 40906, "typical_volume": 21023.15, "trend": 13.41, "fair_value": 13.735577, "relative_strength": -22.29683, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.577992, "energy": 42.173204, "activity_lines": [ 11.273333, 11.288182, 11.62119, 12.197849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.5, "volume": 11890, "typical_volume": 20359.65, "trend": 13.203333, "fair_value": 13.714744, "relative_strength": -23.525736, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.536299, "energy": 32.830181, "activity_lines": [ 11.366667, 11.306364, 11.587857, 12.074624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.95, "volume": 15870, "typical_volume": 20759.3, "trend": 13.0, "fair_value": 13.700962, "relative_strength": -21.544694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.674589, "energy": 20.519774, "activity_lines": [ 11.6, 11.42, 11.602143, 11.993763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }