{ "ticker": { "uuid": "20bb88e8-b941-478f-a0f4-2d00a696feff", "symbol": "ALINV", "name": "Invibes Advertising N.V.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 43.497, "architecture_energy": 40.432, "architecture_maturity": 27.824, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.6, "rotation_up": 67.96, "upward_expansion": 41.85, "deceleration": 37.81, "rotation_down": 22.18, "downward_expansion": 23.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.804267, 0.721455, 0.698133, 0.71614 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.03, "trend_reference": 0.7491, "distance_from_trend": 0.374983, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.740359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.624137, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 21.215979, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.2875, "excess_performance": 0.234189, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.374983, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049808, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.624137, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113358, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.21216, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.295761, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.2875, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.186419, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75237, "relative_activity": 5.873165, "balance": 2.186419, "dry_up": 2.665277, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115907, "annualized_volatility": 0.911111, "from_high_reference": -0.088496, "from_low_reference": 0.928839 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.7491, "fair_value_reference": 2.740359, "structural_low": 0.534, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.199633, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.213692, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.186667, "worst_return": -0.212598, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.404199, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.407786, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.404199, "worst_return": -0.404199, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.355643, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.366022, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.355643, "worst_return": -0.355643, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.317585, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.416913, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.317585, "worst_return": -0.317585, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-03-18", "end": "2022-04-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.156051, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-04-15", "end": "2022-07-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.146067, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-08-05", "end": "2023-05-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.578481, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-06-02", "end": "2023-07-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.296588, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-07-14", "end": "2023-07-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023529, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.069672, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.156863, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.150649, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.203704, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07037, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.8392, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.309524, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.28866, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.0, "volume": 6108, "typical_volume": 7659.25, "trend": 5.805667, "fair_value": 11.874872, "relative_strength": -36.152011, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", 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0.657105, 0.698284 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.728, "volume": 41191, "typical_volume": 10046.6, "trend": 0.7439, "fair_value": 2.794718, "relative_strength": -11.659292, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.426245, "energy": 25.770846, "activity_lines": [ 0.634533, 0.625127, 0.660133, 0.697095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.75, "volume": 17554, "typical_volume": 10294.0, "trend": 0.7409, "fair_value": 2.766321, "relative_strength": -9.760331, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.036597, "energy": 13.762032, "activity_lines": [ 0.6764, 0.648291, 0.665781, 0.697488 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.03, "volume": 75237, "typical_volume": 12810.3, "trend": 0.7491, "fair_value": 2.740359, "relative_strength": 21.215979, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.497032, "energy": 40.432232, "activity_lines": [ 0.804267, 0.721455, 0.698133, 0.71614 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }