{ "ticker": { "uuid": "20bd9e28-92e5-4387-9d3d-8252e5fac4b0", "symbol": "ZJG", "name": "BMO Junior Gold Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.465, "architecture_energy": 29.448, "architecture_maturity": 33.961, "architecture_confidence": 67.674, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.53, "rotation_up": 25.32, "upward_expansion": 13.12, "deceleration": 61.16, "rotation_down": 43.89, "downward_expansion": 72.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 219.684664, 218.741635, 227.228094, 236.695031 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 248.009995, "trend_reference": 249.220666, "distance_from_trend": -0.004858, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 136.102439, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.82223, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.165554, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.049734, "excess_performance": -0.170155, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004858, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000434, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.82223, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.283385, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031656, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167747, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.049734, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.060736, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57400, "relative_activity": 0.872208, "balance": 1.060736, "dry_up": 0.510181, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082537, "annualized_volatility": 0.628604, "from_high_reference": -0.260621, "from_low_reference": 0.717741 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 249.220666, "fair_value_reference": 136.102439, "structural_low": 194.610001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.028981, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.001197, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.223271, "worst_return": -0.140228, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.02011, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.023696, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.371457, "worst_return": -0.036539, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.011154, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.02422, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.283217, "worst_return": -0.101871, "sufficient": true }, { 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"volume": 48600, "typical_volume": 72575.0, "trend": 251.023351, "fair_value": 133.092033, "relative_strength": -20.077299, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.427365, "energy": 70.908366, "activity_lines": [ 212.809999, 219.430182, 232.292523, 242.343097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 210.619995, "volume": 13100, "typical_volume": 69285.0, "trend": 250.063999, "fair_value": 134.025564, "relative_strength": -14.84586, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.890912, "energy": 59.92435, "activity_lines": [ 210.695997, 216.743817, 229.277666, 239.736429 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 204.190002, "volume": 15200, "typical_volume": 66050.0, "trend": 249.277666, "fair_value": 134.92286, "relative_strength": -17.320579, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.177199, "energy": 68.424411, "activity_lines": [ 207.422665, 213.488, 226.019618, 236.776816 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 248.009995, "volume": 57400, "typical_volume": 65810.0, "trend": 249.220666, "fair_value": 136.102439, "relative_strength": -3.165554, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.465059, "energy": 29.447514, "activity_lines": [ 219.684664, 218.741635, 227.228094, 236.695031 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }