{ "ticker": { "uuid": "20be5705-dbcf-4697-a0d3-1335c3ad9e14", "symbol": "ARIHANTSUP", "name": "Arihant Superstructures Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 20.837, "architecture_energy": 17.106, "architecture_maturity": 26.072, "architecture_confidence": 45.558, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.66, "rotation_up": 41.38, "upward_expansion": 44.49, "deceleration": 32.1, "rotation_down": 26.63, "downward_expansion": 14.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 263.343337, 262.274546, 261.507236, 258.20574 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 265.5, "trend_reference": 258.797665, "distance_from_trend": 0.025898, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 332.700571, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.201985, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.321896, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.066292, "excess_performance": -0.022582, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025898, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095375, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.201985, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052922, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133219, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029152, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.066292, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.061076, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 102203, "relative_activity": 0.159149, "balance": 0.061076, "dry_up": 0.193289, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080081, "annualized_volatility": 0.462521, "from_high_reference": -0.429032, "from_low_reference": 0.40625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 258.797665, "fair_value_reference": 332.700571, "structural_low": 188.800003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.02141, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.01354, "regime_survival": 0.52381, "best_return": 0.319106, "worst_return": -0.268679, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.09493, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.072666, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.428845, "worst_return": -0.219884, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.042585, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.01275, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.729309, "worst_return": 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"trend": 266.615997, "fair_value": 330.325704, "relative_strength": -16.086944, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.850534, "energy": 6.303731, "activity_lines": [ 260.909996, 260.371812, 257.6109, 258.403738 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 262.100006, "volume": 181105, "typical_volume": 652180.55, "trend": 265.159331, "fair_value": 330.903654, "relative_strength": -16.022003, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.011354, "energy": 3.466754, "activity_lines": [ 261.326666, 260.507269, 258.561949, 258.112384 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 262.600006, "volume": 170035, "typical_volume": 656765.05, "trend": 263.024332, "fair_value": 331.4883, "relative_strength": -13.089103, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.415888, "energy": 2.887442, "activity_lines": [ 261.556669, 261.007271, 259.573949, 257.947266 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 261.850006, "volume": 43167, "typical_volume": 654991.7, "trend": 260.319332, "fair_value": 332.069091, "relative_strength": -14.674478, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.080553, "energy": 12.459974, "activity_lines": [ 262.083337, 261.483636, 260.464284, 257.871503 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 265.5, "volume": 102203, "typical_volume": 642185.65, "trend": 258.797665, "fair_value": 332.700571, "relative_strength": -13.321896, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.836604, "energy": 17.105507, "activity_lines": [ 263.343337, 262.274546, 261.507236, 258.20574 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }