{ "ticker": { "uuid": "20c2d7b1-64b6-4f76-84c5-37a7f4386032", "symbol": "82839", "name": "ChinaAMC MSCI China A 50 Connect ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 50.599, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 17.57, "architecture_energy": 13.287, "architecture_maturity": 42.778, "architecture_confidence": 85.33, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.15, "rotation_up": 24.08, "upward_expansion": 46.9, "deceleration": 84.05, "rotation_down": 29.09, "downward_expansion": 24.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.715783, 27.805004, 27.965363, 27.672166 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 28.08, "trend_reference": 27.28897, "distance_from_trend": 0.028987, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.875782, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.283611, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.06622, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.074216, "excess_performance": 0.107797, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028987, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018372, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.283611, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059705, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.050662, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.074216, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.740657, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2150, "relative_activity": 0.021324, "balance": 0.740657, "dry_up": 1.576579, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036254, "annualized_volatility": 0.15205, "from_high_reference": -0.050068, "from_low_reference": 0.26259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.28897, "fair_value_reference": 21.875782, "structural_low": 25.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss 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"gate": "up", "direction": 37.018474, "energy": 20.402007, "activity_lines": [ 28.000134, 28.224497, 27.952086, 27.576965 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.864025, "volume": 441400, "typical_volume": 103332.5, "trend": 27.20897, "fair_value": 21.731051, "relative_strength": 6.249235, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.669899, "energy": 19.710205, "activity_lines": [ 27.551805, 27.956773, 27.893493, 27.555752 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.879999, "volume": 95700, "typical_volume": 100055.0, "trend": 27.243637, "fair_value": 21.778815, "relative_strength": 8.008659, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.069729, "energy": 18.7001, "activity_lines": [ 27.549865, 27.902426, 27.928878, 27.599044 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.559999, "volume": 96600, "typical_volume": 103105.0, "trend": 27.26297, "fair_value": 21.823791, "relative_strength": 2.636262, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.725064, "energy": 15.675815, "activity_lines": [ 27.537258, 27.801533, 27.925692, 27.619454 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.08, "volume": 2150, "typical_volume": 100827.5, "trend": 27.28897, "fair_value": 21.875782, "relative_strength": 5.06622, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.569736, "energy": 13.286565, "activity_lines": [ 27.715783, 27.805004, 27.965363, 27.672166 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }