{ "ticker": { "uuid": "20c4a9b5-d862-4c5e-875e-5cde13f9f66c", "symbol": "YUMR34", "name": "Yum! Brands, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.714, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.953, "architecture_energy": 42.807, "architecture_maturity": 36.122, "architecture_confidence": 63.885, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.19, "rotation_up": 14.47, "upward_expansion": 14.15, "deceleration": 61.07, "rotation_down": 66.15, "downward_expansion": 68.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 387.497327, 390.862541, 390.717517, 395.478274 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 378.519989, "trend_reference": 401.54385, "distance_from_trend": -0.057338, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 370.669886, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.021178, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.628812, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.086157, "excess_performance": -0.029109, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057338, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003697, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.021178, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021337, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086288, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113353, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.086157, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.024973, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 601, "relative_activity": 12.706131, "balance": 0.024973, "dry_up": 3.710359, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03306, "annualized_volatility": 0.292212, "from_high_reference": -0.130259, "from_low_reference": 0.014364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 401.54385, "fair_value_reference": 370.669886, "structural_low": 373.160004, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.002424, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.005776, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.071372, "worst_return": -0.015, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.022377, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002334, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.10795, "worst_return": -0.063196, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.079888, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.051577, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.127242, "worst_return": 0.032535, "sufficient": false }, { 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069323, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.002436, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007551, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.00503, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", 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"activity_lines": [ 399.545998, 392.523076, 394.504045, 399.056045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 379.470001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 17.2, "trend": 403.347359, "fair_value": 369.699211, "relative_strength": -10.292363, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.028604, "energy": 28.476484, "activity_lines": [ 393.156, 391.053389, 392.569025, 397.446165 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 397.079987, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 17.25, "trend": 402.754938, "fair_value": 370.244035, "relative_strength": -7.64799, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.634034, "energy": 14.287605, "activity_lines": [ 393.549996, 392.798725, 392.483055, 397.041819 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 378.519989, "volume": 601, "typical_volume": 47.3, "trend": 401.54385, "fair_value": 370.669886, "relative_strength": -8.628812, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.953494, "energy": 42.806934, "activity_lines": [ 387.497327, 390.862541, 390.717517, 395.478274 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }