{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "20c5b1be-05ed-4a2b-8338-3620c0792e10",
    "symbol": "PJUL",
    "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Power Buffer ETF - July",
    "exchange": "CBOE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 59.53,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 90.241,
    "architecture_energy": 71.751,
    "architecture_maturity": 76.076,
    "architecture_confidence": 63.911,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 10.3,
        "rotation_up": 61.4,
        "upward_expansion": 85.33,
        "deceleration": 68.52,
        "rotation_down": 27.05,
        "downward_expansion": 12.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 49.72,
    "trend_reference": 47.648987,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.043464,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 41.570612,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.196037,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -5.355245,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.061713,
    "excess_performance": -0.063912,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.043464,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.019332,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.196037,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.000679,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.053552,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.00301,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.061713,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.510691,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
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      "relative_activity": 1.015687,
      "balance": 0.510691,
      "dry_up": 1.872028,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.00786,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.05736,
      "from_high_reference": -0.003405,
      "from_low_reference": 0.122855
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    "levels": {
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      "fair_value_reference": 41.570612,
      "structural_low": 45.1001,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 46,
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        "positive_rate": 0.608696,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.608696,
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        "worst_return": -0.048553,
        "sufficient": true
      },
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        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "fair_value": 40.11385,
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        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
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        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
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        "typical_volume": 183477.1,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": -4.500742,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 303673.45,
        "trend": 47.220487,
        "fair_value": 41.107087,
        "relative_strength": -4.536948,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 41.20058,
        "relative_strength": -4.85182,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 86.900836,
        "energy": 93.49921,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 2102862,
        "typical_volume": 456376.55,
        "trend": 47.399987,
        "fair_value": 41.291125,
        "relative_strength": -3.899134,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.62571,
        "energy": 86.06128,
        "activity_lines": [
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          48.309119,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 48.6,
        "volume": 741403,
        "typical_volume": 485202.35,
        "trend": 47.46732,
        "fair_value": 41.379202,
        "relative_strength": -3.529221,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.858137,
        "energy": 63.026023,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 48.95,
        "volume": 498098,
        "typical_volume": 498880.5,
        "trend": 47.549653,
        "fair_value": 41.472343,
        "relative_strength": -3.721691,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.871417,
        "energy": 64.938596,
        "activity_lines": [
          48.825,
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          48.494786,
          48.054418
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 49.72,
        "volume": 524501,
        "typical_volume": 516400.4,
        "trend": 47.648987,
        "fair_value": 41.570612,
        "relative_strength": -5.355245,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 90.241495,
        "energy": 71.750653,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}