{ "ticker": { "uuid": "20d91266-6a63-4757-b2fe-2767b1cfaaf3", "symbol": "002824", "name": "Guangdong Hoshion Industrial Aluminium Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.868, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.049, "architecture_energy": 37.104, "architecture_maturity": 52.661, "architecture_confidence": 54.657, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.29, "rotation_up": 14.05, "upward_expansion": 17.17, "deceleration": 71.45, "rotation_down": 65.86, "downward_expansion": 42.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.176667, 25.838909, 26.877519, 26.033483 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 23.15, "trend_reference": 24.790802, "distance_from_trend": -0.066186, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.145727, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.275782, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.159271, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.003444, "excess_performance": -0.010844, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.066186, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.13623, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.275782, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.270193, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.011593, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126613, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003444, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.094821, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 95866154, "relative_activity": 1.197061, "balance": 1.094821, "dry_up": 1.13773, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.214194, "annualized_volatility": 0.898895, "from_high_reference": -0.408986, "from_low_reference": 0.397103 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.790802, "fair_value_reference": 18.145727, "structural_low": 16.57, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.064817, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.013036, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.630003, "worst_return": -0.213156, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.046162, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.098575, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 1.06199, "worst_return": -0.300454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.021189, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.098621, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.609005, "worst_return": -0.200154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008987, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.135817, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029882, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08642, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086935, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"direction": 17.767853, "energy": 16.589676, "activity_lines": [ 29.200668, 29.875943, 28.259481, 26.652971 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.01, "volume": 102092056, "typical_volume": 75085720.9, "trend": 24.693802, "fair_value": 18.120963, "relative_strength": -0.048561, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.053569, "energy": 18.83781, "activity_lines": [ 25.967334, 28.554931, 27.857129, 26.488941 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.15, "volume": 89302816, "typical_volume": 77962150.6, "trend": 24.665802, "fair_value": 18.118681, "relative_strength": -11.698063, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.581059, "energy": 40.284734, "activity_lines": [ 22.841334, 26.779834, 27.174871, 26.131276 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.15, "volume": 95866154, "typical_volume": 80084570.6, "trend": 24.790802, "fair_value": 18.145727, "relative_strength": 1.159271, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.049086, "energy": 37.104368, "activity_lines": [ 22.176667, 25.838909, 26.877519, 26.033483 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }