{ "ticker": { "uuid": "20da97e8-f805-43ae-9e62-5e7e35647cf3", "symbol": "FNM", "name": "FNM S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 67.298, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.834, "architecture_energy": 45.692, "architecture_maturity": 8.304, "architecture_confidence": 88.42, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.12, "rotation_up": 17.2, "upward_expansion": 7.78, "deceleration": 45.14, "rotation_down": 51.41, "downward_expansion": 76.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.458833, 0.460245, 0.469646, 0.471713 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.461, "trend_reference": 0.474669, "distance_from_trend": -0.028796, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.416148, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.10778, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.200498, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.039599, "excess_performance": -0.210491, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028796, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003876, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.10778, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074363, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.152005, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107384, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.039599, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.296452, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 603362, "relative_activity": 0.6889, "balance": 4.296452, "dry_up": 0.604866, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029082, "annualized_volatility": 0.202535, "from_high_reference": -0.118608, "from_low_reference": 0.175906 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.474669, "fair_value_reference": 0.416148, "structural_low": 0.430286, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.023809, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": 0.008455, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.113635, "worst_return": -0.118354, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.046726, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.011052, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.103147, "worst_return": -0.127813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.006003, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04529, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.209554, "worst_return": -0.132869, "sufficient": true }, { 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-12.726342, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.932341, "energy": 65.998292, "activity_lines": [ 0.460233, 0.46753, 0.474332, 0.475273 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.4525, "volume": 465325, "typical_volume": 929721.7, "trend": 0.475843, "fair_value": 0.415027, "relative_strength": -14.028016, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.827956, "energy": 69.647007, "activity_lines": [ 0.457367, 0.463639, 0.472258, 0.473759 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.459, "volume": 598681, "typical_volume": 880875.8, "trend": 0.475876, "fair_value": 0.415589, "relative_strength": -13.23039, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.990977, "energy": 56.995218, "activity_lines": [ 0.457867, 0.4615, 0.470856, 0.472673 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.461, "volume": 603362, "typical_volume": 875833.85, "trend": 0.474669, "fair_value": 0.416148, "relative_strength": -15.200498, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.834406, "energy": 45.691972, "activity_lines": [ 0.458833, 0.460245, 0.469646, 0.471713 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }