{ "ticker": { "uuid": "20e45289-12de-4a65-ba9c-144df75cb591", "symbol": "AUTL", "name": "Autolus Therapeutics Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.587, "architecture_energy": 41.912, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.805, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.78, "rotation_up": 49.81, "upward_expansion": 75.57, "deceleration": 55.64, "rotation_down": 23.94, "downward_expansion": 13.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.69, 1.624909, 1.60581, 1.573849 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.11, "trend_reference": 1.533667, "distance_from_trend": 0.375788, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.874071, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.26585, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 19.636994, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.485915, "excess_performance": 0.298462, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.375788, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008991, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.26585, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.205594, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.19637, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.423724, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.485915, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.1429, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25040504, "relative_activity": 3.22137, "balance": 3.1429, "dry_up": 1.338372, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127328, "annualized_volatility": 0.777052, "from_high_reference": -0.162698, "from_low_reference": 0.795745 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.533667, "fair_value_reference": 2.874071, "structural_low": 1.175, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.012723, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.074177, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.02445, "worst_return": -0.361702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.004268, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025032, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.474328, "worst_return": -0.376068, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.337607, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.440943, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.513605, "worst_return": -0.421384, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.833494, "energy": 3.868449, "activity_lines": [ 1.540667, 1.571273, 1.560952, 1.545054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.45, "volume": 3912639, "typical_volume": 6974092.0, "trend": 1.536333, "fair_value": 2.888045, "relative_strength": -15.289865, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.236813, "energy": 10.486224, "activity_lines": [ 1.507333, 1.543273, 1.553571, 1.539011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.49, "volume": 4247012, "typical_volume": 6804215.1, "trend": 1.523667, "fair_value": 2.878237, "relative_strength": -12.013325, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.841844, "energy": 11.356368, "activity_lines": [ 1.491333, 1.525818, 1.550286, 1.536022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.11, "volume": 25040504, "typical_volume": 7773247.1, "trend": 1.533667, "fair_value": 2.874071, "relative_strength": 19.636994, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.586591, "energy": 41.911923, "activity_lines": [ 1.69, 1.624909, 1.60581, 1.573849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }