{ "ticker": { "uuid": "20f100ab-b871-44d0-9aea-7690357bb5cb", "symbol": "ETFEU", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi Prime Europe UCITS ETF DR", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.883, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.391, "architecture_energy": 73.662, "architecture_maturity": 41.02, "architecture_confidence": 75.863, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 65.61, "upward_expansion": 86.45, "deceleration": 54.95, "rotation_down": 22.78, "downward_expansion": 13.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.311667, 37.056182, 36.373476, 35.794839 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 37.91, "trend_reference": 35.190667, "distance_from_trend": 0.077274, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.512838, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.284526, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.574049, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.097409, "excess_performance": -0.073482, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077274, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041969, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.284526, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065141, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03574, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015502, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.097409, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.274311, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1731, "relative_activity": 0.189289, "balance": 1.274311, "dry_up": 0.7755, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016385, "annualized_volatility": 0.14257, "from_high_reference": -0.000922, "from_low_reference": 0.25097 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.190667, "fair_value_reference": 29.512838, "structural_low": 31.645, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": 0.013577, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.004824, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.074453, "worst_return": -0.095156, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.019179, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.029541, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.093066, "worst_return": -0.065862, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.076322, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.044606, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.157071, "worst_return": -0.118299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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29.18409, "relative_strength": -4.746246, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.46512, "energy": 86.185763, "activity_lines": [ 36.806666, 36.370091, 35.589, 35.18786 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.740002, "volume": 12421, "typical_volume": 9459.75, "trend": 34.793167, "fair_value": 29.263617, "relative_strength": -3.453526, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.801019, "energy": 82.386062, "activity_lines": [ 36.836334, 36.512091, 35.756048, 35.321699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.955002, "volume": 6399, "typical_volume": 9646.5, "trend": 34.927, "fair_value": 29.341159, "relative_strength": -2.652536, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.818006, "energy": 76.015009, "activity_lines": [ 36.899001, 36.657, 35.938024, 35.461172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.244999, "volume": 7816, "typical_volume": 9992.55, "trend": 35.056167, "fair_value": 29.424926, "relative_strength": -2.520315, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.779545, "energy": 64.841556, "activity_lines": [ 37.020667, 36.81, 36.133024, 35.610721 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.91, "volume": 1731, "typical_volume": 9144.75, "trend": 35.190667, "fair_value": 29.512838, "relative_strength": -3.574049, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.391264, "energy": 73.661835, "activity_lines": [ 37.311667, 37.056182, 36.373476, 35.794839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }