{ "ticker": { "uuid": "20fc367d-2eef-4889-bd51-4c9889bea6bf", "symbol": "ALK", "name": "Alaska Air Group Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.06, "architecture_energy": 11.537, "architecture_maturity": 26.389, "architecture_confidence": 55.119, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.95, "rotation_up": 26.41, "upward_expansion": 33.21, "deceleration": 65.47, "rotation_down": 33.46, "downward_expansion": 19.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.895333, 48.489273, 46.471143, 45.523527 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 49.96, "trend_reference": 45.811333, "distance_from_trend": 0.09056, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.477692, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.074924, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.333717, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.15963, "excess_performance": -0.285255, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.09056, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007175, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.074924, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.2, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073337, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.188864, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.15963, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.778746, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11468997, "relative_activity": 0.645043, "balance": 1.778746, "dry_up": 0.852996, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106482, "annualized_volatility": 0.588112, "from_high_reference": -0.241651, "from_low_reference": 0.512564 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.811333, "fair_value_reference": 46.477692, "structural_low": 33.03, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.02858, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.013163, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.137765, "worst_return": -0.141098, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.072727, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.12413, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.104787, "worst_return": -0.188072, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.095873, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.166898, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": -0.058514, "worst_return": -0.20654, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.209332, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.244256, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.815783, "worst_return": -0.306187, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02069, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119473, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009398, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.140786, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001906, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047978, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.302555, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028727, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.168665, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.394652, "energy": 33.93399, "activity_lines": [ 49.032, 48.122545, 45.170143, 45.158753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.13, "volume": 21319617, "typical_volume": 19367082.7, "trend": 45.947667, "fair_value": 46.448269, "relative_strength": -11.40008, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.97275, "energy": 13.844783, "activity_lines": [ 47.799333, 48.081091, 45.467476, 45.158989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.45, "volume": 13451599, "typical_volume": 18642439.35, "trend": 45.812, "fair_value": 46.452821, "relative_strength": -9.357696, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.951287, "energy": 9.107637, "activity_lines": [ 47.215333, 48.112545, 45.872286, 45.255914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.96, "volume": 11468997, "typical_volume": 17780200.15, "trend": 45.811333, "fair_value": 46.477692, "relative_strength": -7.333717, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.059965, "energy": 11.537383, "activity_lines": [ 47.895333, 48.489273, 46.471143, 45.523527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }