{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2100d30b-da77-4d0f-911a-2eb0a4db79d6", "symbol": "TRA", "name": "Turners Automotive Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 84.427, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -92.06, "architecture_energy": 76.608, "architecture_maturity": 32.563, "architecture_confidence": 59.691, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.65, "rotation_up": 9.14, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.47, "rotation_down": 85.8, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.865074, 6.914342, 7.006847, 7.055007 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.8, "trend_reference": 7.100888, "distance_from_trend": -0.042373, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.923843, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.381035, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.70705, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.051051, "excess_performance": -0.114756, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042373, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007163, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.381035, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.201387, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03707, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208376, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.051051, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.010767, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1656, "relative_activity": 5.936548, "balance": 0.010767, "dry_up": 2.82936, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007441, "annualized_volatility": 0.052059, "from_high_reference": -0.068493, "from_low_reference": 0.361421 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.100888, "fair_value_reference": 4.923843, "structural_low": 6.8, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.01425, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.004738, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.012685, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.004738, "worst_return": 0.004738, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.106079, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.148271, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.106079, "worst_return": 0.106079, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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4.792673, "relative_strength": 6.015363, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -56.6667, "energy": 84.795589, "activity_lines": [ 6.985476, 7.046339, 7.111482, 7.122527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.956115, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 121.1, "trend": 7.109994, "fair_value": 4.819237, "relative_strength": 5.742186, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -53.737586, "energy": 83.705799, "activity_lines": [ 6.970628, 7.019573, 7.09378, 7.112637 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.03, "volume": 16, "typical_volume": 121.9, "trend": 7.113041, "fair_value": 4.846274, "relative_strength": 6.336833, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.410583, "energy": 70.058732, "activity_lines": [ 6.988, 7.011402, 7.084112, 7.107476 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.92, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 126.9, "trend": 7.112422, "fair_value": 4.872606, "relative_strength": 4.396336, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.874001, "energy": 74.903794, "activity_lines": [ 6.966418, 6.987049, 7.064615, 7.095022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.8, "volume": 1385, "typical_volume": 196.15, "trend": 7.107803, "fair_value": 4.898224, "relative_strength": -0.210375, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -96.486233, "energy": 77.563576, "activity_lines": [ 6.909883, 6.946696, 7.03486, 7.074866 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.8, "volume": 1656, "typical_volume": 278.95, "trend": 7.100888, "fair_value": 4.923843, "relative_strength": -3.70705, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -92.059824, "energy": 76.608104, "activity_lines": [ 6.865074, 6.914342, 7.006847, 7.055007 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }