{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21179a7a-ba3f-40d0-b1e6-e776bd41b21b", "symbol": "URNM", "name": "Sprott Uranium Miners UCITS ETF Accumulating", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.414, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.382, "architecture_energy": 52.356, "architecture_maturity": 22.409, "architecture_confidence": 91.753, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.91, "rotation_up": 20.42, "upward_expansion": 7.85, "deceleration": 49.55, "rotation_down": 61.8, "downward_expansion": 83.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.934, 13.102527, 13.845386, 14.416791 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.664, "trend_reference": 15.200133, "distance_from_trend": -0.101061, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.356599, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.203177, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.927019, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.133929, "excess_performance": -0.185164, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.101061, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007735, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.203177, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.287161, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10927, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.261711, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.133929, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.472468, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 127605, "relative_activity": 0.847098, "balance": 0.472468, "dry_up": 1.027099, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075431, "annualized_volatility": 0.37681, "from_high_reference": -0.326897, "from_low_reference": 0.394713 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.200133, "fair_value_reference": 11.356599, "structural_low": 12.012, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.022766, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.039336, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.205151, "worst_return": -0.169353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.101503, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.105957, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.591437, "worst_return": -0.315297, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.062796, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.013382, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.120345, "worst_return": 0.005247, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.641423, "energy": 70.448732, "activity_lines": [ 13.507667, 13.847345, 14.630514, 15.070929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.182, "volume": 174688, "typical_volume": 175652.8, "trend": 15.311433, "fair_value": 11.247576, "relative_strength": -18.254083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.943038, "energy": 84.825202, "activity_lines": [ 13.039533, 13.474382, 14.348905, 14.867374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.795, "volume": 88327, "typical_volume": 158186.1, "trend": 15.294467, "fair_value": 11.284291, "relative_strength": -15.189391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.197243, "energy": 76.766773, "activity_lines": [ 12.8692, 13.284182, 14.1502, 14.705024 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.414, "volume": 228260, "typical_volume": 159350.65, "trend": 15.251133, "fair_value": 11.317246, "relative_strength": -18.758155, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.103458, "energy": 78.146415, "activity_lines": [ 12.660067, 13.061527, 13.930233, 14.519187 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.664, "volume": 127605, "typical_volume": 150637.8, "trend": 15.200133, "fair_value": 11.356599, "relative_strength": -10.927019, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.382331, "energy": 52.35623, "activity_lines": [ 12.934, 13.102527, 13.845386, 14.416791 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }