{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2118ea08-84b6-4f16-a53a-b42366cb00bb", "symbol": "ALDRV", "name": "Drone Volt SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.044, "architecture_energy": 74.123, "architecture_maturity": 88.658, "architecture_confidence": 94.143, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.41, "rotation_up": 25.22, "upward_expansion": 17.26, "deceleration": 41.03, "rotation_down": 60.28, "downward_expansion": 92.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.364093, 0.374695, 0.412488, 0.445433 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.3698, "trend_reference": 0.49415, "distance_from_trend": -0.251644, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.651256, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.432174, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.26982, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.407372, "excess_performance": -0.460683, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.251644, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173252, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.432174, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098056, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.422698, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134222, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.407372, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.810526, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2964225, "relative_activity": 1.573857, "balance": 0.810526, "dry_up": 0.744751, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102301, "annualized_volatility": 0.353586, "from_high_reference": -0.620718, "from_low_reference": 0.086369 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.49415, "fair_value_reference": 0.651256, "structural_low": 0.3404, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": -0.1, "positive_rate": 0.255319, "directional_follow_through": 0.744681, "median_excess_return": -0.078703, "regime_survival": 0.914894, "best_return": 2.243242, "worst_return": -0.397436, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.293964, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.235126, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.294118, "worst_return": -0.685185, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.455412, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.406503, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 2.154574, "worst_return": -0.66333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 0.374947, 0.398276, 0.440875, 0.474606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.3648, "volume": 893390, "typical_volume": 1907627.6, "trend": 0.514657, "fair_value": 0.660754, "relative_strength": -42.318347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.261204, "energy": 84.85291, "activity_lines": [ 0.36836, 0.38888, 0.430604, 0.464212 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.357, "volume": 790352, "typical_volume": 1868056.15, "trend": 0.503223, "fair_value": 0.655996, "relative_strength": -43.706182, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.74142, "energy": 86.540527, "activity_lines": [ 0.363387, 0.379778, 0.420524, 0.454041 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.3698, "volume": 2964225, "typical_volume": 1883414.25, "trend": 0.49415, "fair_value": 0.651256, "relative_strength": -42.26982, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.044046, "energy": 74.123143, "activity_lines": [ 0.364093, 0.374695, 0.412488, 0.445433 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }