{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2119c03b-90f2-4a79-954d-914c95211d45", "symbol": "T15", "name": "Tan Chong International Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.219, "architecture_energy": 39.312, "architecture_maturity": 20.462, "architecture_confidence": 82.412, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.67, "rotation_up": 17.6, "upward_expansion": 10.17, "deceleration": 38.45, "rotation_down": 59.48, "downward_expansion": 78.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.620667, 1.64, 1.65075, 1.656622 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.6, "trend_reference": 1.694506, "distance_from_trend": -0.055772, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.358721, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.177578, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.366699, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.130435, "excess_performance": -0.28527, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.055772, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035114, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.177578, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101674, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203667, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.211176, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.130435, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.650582, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27000, "relative_activity": 0.248733, "balance": 2.650582, "dry_up": 0.980424, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054131, "annualized_volatility": 0.294686, "from_high_reference": -0.211823, "from_low_reference": 0.141114 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.694506, "fair_value_reference": 1.358721, "structural_low": 1.46905, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.005157, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.003356, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.017858, "worst_return": -0.1, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.006158, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001728, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.381579, "worst_return": -0.135961, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.066667, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.086963, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.618098, "worst_return": -0.10303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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1.681655, 1.65623, 1.682602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.62, "volume": 48000, "typical_volume": 125525.0, "trend": 1.73084, "fair_value": 1.356353, "relative_strength": -17.282498, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.310042, "energy": 23.564493, "activity_lines": [ 1.650667, 1.668006, 1.653443, 1.674785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.68, "volume": 311700, "typical_volume": 140360.0, "trend": 1.722173, "fair_value": 1.357447, "relative_strength": -15.267952, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.633059, "energy": 16.141899, "activity_lines": [ 1.655333, 1.667091, 1.657132, 1.671505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.6, "volume": 39000, "typical_volume": 127110.0, "trend": 1.708506, "fair_value": 1.358028, "relative_strength": -19.677658, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.742378, "energy": 30.742444, "activity_lines": [ 1.636, 1.652364, 1.653774, 1.663623 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.6, "volume": 27000, "typical_volume": 108550.0, "trend": 1.694506, "fair_value": 1.358721, "relative_strength": -20.366699, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.219223, "energy": 39.311629, "activity_lines": [ 1.620667, 1.64, 1.65075, 1.656622 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }