{ "ticker": { "uuid": "211a31e0-8beb-44e6-b79c-695b5d6f47f5", "symbol": "RIEG", "name": "L&G MSCI Europe Select UCITS ETF - EUR Accumulating ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 74.998, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.549, "architecture_energy": 66.366, "architecture_maturity": 24.513, "architecture_confidence": 76.256, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.69, "rotation_up": 64.26, "upward_expansion": 84.5, "deceleration": 53.04, "rotation_down": 20.59, "downward_expansion": 11.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 1702.56, 1694.027273, 1673.223339, 1657.075275 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1734.4, "trend_reference": 1641.216673, "distance_from_trend": 0.056777, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1405.530775, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.233982, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.440453, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.063723, "excess_performance": 0.012487, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056777, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026049, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.233982, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05151, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004405, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015252, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.063723, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.697701, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3318, "relative_activity": 0.340732, "balance": 0.697701, "dry_up": 1.001915, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016281, "annualized_volatility": 0.158709, "from_high_reference": -0.001956, "from_low_reference": 0.193997 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1641.216673, "fair_value_reference": 1405.530775, "structural_low": 1486.199951, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.007264, "positive_rate": 0.558824, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": -0.001947, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.063726, "worst_return": -0.096535, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.020568, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.00061, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.068242, "worst_return": -0.06886, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.05534, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.005842, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.116475, "worst_return": -0.128402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 9652.6, "trend": 1637.010005, "fair_value": 1401.967955, "relative_strength": -1.339893, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.179094, "energy": 46.492491, "activity_lines": [ 1687.3, 1683.512728, 1664.361911, 1650.792049 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1734.4, "volume": 3318, "typical_volume": 9737.85, "trend": 1641.216673, "fair_value": 1405.530775, "relative_strength": 0.440453, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.549486, "energy": 66.365987, "activity_lines": [ 1702.56, 1694.027273, 1673.223339, 1657.075275 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }