{ "ticker": { "uuid": "211f8c63-5aa5-450e-ad75-4439b0cbd56d", "symbol": "EVSD", "name": "Eaton Vance Short Duration Income ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 90.62, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.374, "architecture_energy": 4.956, "architecture_maturity": 26.198, "architecture_confidence": 74.236, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 70.14, "rotation_up": 22.59, "upward_expansion": 24.33, "deceleration": 29.27, "rotation_down": 31.32, "downward_expansion": 49.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.688108, 50.683419, 50.683706, 50.683745 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 50.815, "trend_reference": 50.689532, "distance_from_trend": 0.002475, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.856244, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.040092, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.037205, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.000909, "excess_performance": -0.186544, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002475, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00245, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.040092, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002552, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120372, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037694, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.000909, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.956244, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 816335, "relative_activity": 1.229228, "balance": 0.956244, "dry_up": 1.031846, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00402, "annualized_volatility": 0.020206, "from_high_reference": -0.003523, "from_low_reference": 0.030819 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.689532, "fair_value_reference": 48.856244, "structural_low": 50.31231, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.003702, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.009794, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.005196, "worst_return": -0.002905, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"energy": 26.41811, "activity_lines": [ 50.629671, 50.65899, 50.668678, 50.675079 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.815, "volume": 816335, "typical_volume": 664103.6, "trend": 50.689532, "fair_value": 48.856244, "relative_strength": -12.037205, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.374373, "energy": 4.955703, "activity_lines": [ 50.688108, 50.683419, 50.683706, 50.683745 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }