{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2120b770-ca2b-44da-bfdd-92159ec0e186", "symbol": "CCA", "name": "Cogeco Communications Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.834, "architecture_energy": 68.277, "architecture_maturity": 15.217, "architecture_confidence": 85.68, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.27, "rotation_up": 10.89, "upward_expansion": 14.52, "deceleration": 39.36, "rotation_down": 73.29, "downward_expansion": 90.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.562009, 61.651929, 62.843985, 63.99235 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 61.189999, "trend_reference": 65.458576, "distance_from_trend": -0.06521, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 59.194247, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.033715, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.759832, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.067166, "excess_performance": -0.187587, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06521, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00944, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.033715, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056958, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.157598, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033485, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.067166, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.462252, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 562800, "relative_activity": 0.751663, "balance": 0.462252, "dry_up": 1.037677, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040508, "annualized_volatility": 0.284852, "from_high_reference": -0.196847, "from_low_reference": 0.050591 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 65.458576, "fair_value_reference": 59.194247, "structural_low": 58.419998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.010957, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": 0.001521, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.220391, "worst_return": -0.096821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.036058, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.007089, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.293579, "worst_return": -0.24221, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.017221, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.115109, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.371056, "worst_return": -0.073496, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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59.022728, "relative_strength": -12.337953, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.40305, "energy": 27.341942, "activity_lines": [ 64.556581, 64.653407, 65.160934, 65.778092 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 63.23703, "volume": 28100, "typical_volume": 820360.0, "trend": 66.077665, "fair_value": 59.046077, "relative_strength": -12.50619, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.03478, "energy": 37.037618, "activity_lines": [ 63.925875, 64.448036, 64.876, 65.590919 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 62.440052, "volume": 441400, "typical_volume": 820650.0, "trend": 66.013174, "fair_value": 59.077314, "relative_strength": -13.139857, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.180732, "energy": 66.437637, "activity_lines": [ 63.295041, 64.08254, 64.537459, 65.356234 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 62.292465, "volume": 879900, "typical_volume": 809030.0, "trend": 65.962516, "fair_value": 59.115316, "relative_strength": -12.835395, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.963089, "energy": 68.556323, "activity_lines": [ 62.761008, 63.709119, 64.209216, 65.116188 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.685055, "volume": 822700, "typical_volume": 819810.0, "trend": 65.815892, "fair_value": 59.137151, "relative_strength": -16.263566, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.966806, "energy": 79.574326, "activity_lines": [ 61.647006, 62.89176, 63.67519, 64.711191 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.099998, "volume": 842400, "typical_volume": 825895.0, "trend": 65.616141, "fair_value": 59.164346, "relative_strength": -16.319952, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.520976, "energy": 81.848135, "activity_lines": [ 60.615649, 62.024663, 63.135106, 64.277907 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.189999, "volume": 562800, "typical_volume": 748740.0, "trend": 65.458576, "fair_value": 59.194247, "relative_strength": -15.759832, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.833783, "energy": 68.277074, "activity_lines": [ 60.562009, 61.651929, 62.843985, 63.99235 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }