{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21269a7e-73a1-418c-8862-55058c589bd3", "symbol": "AIGP", "name": "WisdomTree Precious Metals", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.199, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.474, "architecture_energy": 54.729, "architecture_maturity": 52.457, "architecture_confidence": 90.82, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.44, "rotation_up": 26.95, "upward_expansion": 9.6, "deceleration": 60.42, "rotation_down": 49.57, "downward_expansion": 80.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.239666, 41.292363, 42.842404, 44.286344 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 43.075001, "trend_reference": 46.203166, "distance_from_trend": -0.067705, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.063282, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.386685, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.049342, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.113409, "excess_performance": -0.284301, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.067705, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003937, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.386685, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.237096, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.130493, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19252, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.113409, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.187053, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5176, "relative_activity": 0.626843, "balance": 0.187053, "dry_up": 1.519786, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040189, "annualized_volatility": 0.26321, "from_high_reference": -0.25988, "from_low_reference": 0.422321 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.203166, "fair_value_reference": 31.063282, "structural_low": 39.349998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.01957, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.003776, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.039506, "worst_return": -0.046284, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.015266, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.067497, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.040365, "worst_return": -0.005141, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.054451, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.08855, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.166259, "worst_return": 0.000103, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"down", "direction": -73.456504, "energy": 88.645853, "activity_lines": [ 41.500667, 42.660455, 44.470071, 45.71186 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.794998, "volume": 30822, "typical_volume": 13901.65, "trend": 46.506167, "fair_value": 30.650218, "relative_strength": -16.674527, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.523371, "energy": 90.593278, "activity_lines": [ 40.864333, 41.933364, 43.868619, 45.272968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.884998, "volume": 3419, "typical_volume": 11719.5, "trend": 46.411666, "fair_value": 30.783231, "relative_strength": -14.338141, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.399416, "energy": 72.860651, "activity_lines": [ 40.775999, 41.542545, 43.434571, 44.910312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.974998, "volume": 10780, "typical_volume": 11992.7, "trend": 46.309833, "fair_value": 30.912519, "relative_strength": -16.834885, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.775429, "energy": 72.058356, "activity_lines": [ 40.457665, 41.081727, 42.963404, 44.495043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.075001, "volume": 5176, "typical_volume": 8257.25, "trend": 46.203166, "fair_value": 31.063282, "relative_strength": -13.049342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.473617, "energy": 54.729098, "activity_lines": [ 41.239666, 41.292363, 42.842404, 44.286344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }