{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21285cf6-ac80-41bc-81ff-ed986bd4f920", "symbol": "ITM", "name": "Italmobiliare S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.645, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.882, "architecture_energy": 22.028, "architecture_maturity": 16.247, "architecture_confidence": 68.185, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.11, "rotation_up": 25.73, "upward_expansion": 32.98, "deceleration": 57.45, "rotation_down": 53.32, "downward_expansion": 28.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.476667, 28.07, 28.21489, 27.839518 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 25.85, "trend_reference": 27.493064, "distance_from_trend": -0.059763, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.725688, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.004832, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.512187, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.05735, "excess_performance": -0.228241, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.059763, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012963, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.004832, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131612, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.205122, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127849, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.05735, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.275226, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 317813, "relative_activity": 3.441883, "balance": 0.275226, "dry_up": 1.723216, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058771, "annualized_volatility": 0.323084, "from_high_reference": -0.207506, "from_low_reference": 0.103307 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.493064, "fair_value_reference": 25.725688, "structural_low": 23.429553, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.035846, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.051577, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.029821, "worst_return": -0.126394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.038462, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.046232, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.031645, "worst_return": -0.073684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.03753, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.095265, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.107287, "worst_return": -0.103509, "sufficient": 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false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068243, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018727, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.012658, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003636, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095764, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", 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28.637273, 28.149085, 27.754274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.549999, "volume": 53986, "typical_volume": 94906.7, "trend": 27.513351, "fair_value": 25.600756, "relative_strength": -7.118262, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.168912, "energy": 44.330301, "activity_lines": [ 29.036666, 28.819091, 28.348405, 27.891591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.450001, "volume": 41728, "typical_volume": 85280.8, "trend": 27.60819, "fair_value": 25.654824, "relative_strength": -6.973438, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.376083, "energy": 56.623282, "activity_lines": [ 29.226667, 28.964546, 28.528989, 28.016536 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.6, "volume": 222939, "typical_volume": 84918.3, "trend": 27.585579, "fair_value": 25.689808, "relative_strength": -16.199645, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.125395, "energy": 12.849095, "activity_lines": [ 28.433333, 28.563636, 28.41314, 27.951491 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.85, "volume": 317813, "typical_volume": 92336.95, "trend": 27.493064, "fair_value": 25.725688, "relative_strength": -20.512187, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.882306, "energy": 22.028308, "activity_lines": [ 27.476667, 28.07, 28.21489, 27.839518 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }