{ "ticker": { "uuid": "212b5eb0-e929-489c-ae7d-86b289ad5210", "symbol": "SHOPN", "name": "Shopify Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.269, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 56.42, "architecture_energy": 56.488, "architecture_maturity": 20.857, "architecture_confidence": 72.077, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.44, "rotation_up": 67.69, "upward_expansion": 57.7, "deceleration": 25.29, "rotation_down": 20.04, "downward_expansion": 20.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 2240.777344, 2156.231638, 2073.623523, 2071.876859 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 2600.0, "trend_reference": 2104.055998, "distance_from_trend": 0.235709, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1858.689999, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.398835, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.417957, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.353462, "excess_performance": 0.408128, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.235709, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112248, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.398835, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.347218, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.04418, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.360561, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.353462, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 15.670142, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48803, "relative_activity": 3.993258, "balance": 15.670142, "dry_up": 1.881891, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075968, "annualized_volatility": 0.631217, "from_high_reference": -0.221557, "from_low_reference": 0.6 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2104.055998, "fair_value_reference": 1858.689999, "structural_low": 1625.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.06, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.001294, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.327264, "worst_return": -0.192814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.202935, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.132665, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.508966, "worst_return": -0.077844, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.323643, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.220484, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.632, "worst_return": -0.210706, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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2006.089986, 2011.451656, 2062.297088 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2164.120117, "volume": 12146, "typical_volume": 10087.25, "trend": 2176.614998, "fair_value": 1835.62564, "relative_strength": -13.934415, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.255528, "energy": 20.969025, "activity_lines": [ 2125.086686, 2044.749463, 2023.156763, 2059.532085 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1985.0, "volume": 972, "typical_volume": 8741.45, "trend": 2142.114998, "fair_value": 1841.298717, "relative_strength": -20.336772, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.299376, "energy": 19.190103, "activity_lines": [ 2092.652018, 2045.494007, 2017.330811, 2047.169827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2041.22998, "volume": 30076, "typical_volume": 10028.8, "trend": 2116.155998, "fair_value": 1848.048973, "relative_strength": -18.394413, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.415817, "energy": 11.548918, "activity_lines": [ 2072.960677, 2052.062185, 2018.502952, 2040.661116 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2600.0, "volume": 48803, "typical_volume": 12221.35, "trend": 2104.055998, "fair_value": 1858.689999, "relative_strength": 4.417957, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 56.41953, "energy": 56.488446, "activity_lines": [ 2240.777344, 2156.231638, 2073.623523, 2071.876859 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }