{ "ticker": { "uuid": "212ce477-e3db-4b43-aedf-afe4d97c56db", "symbol": "TRET", "name": "VanEck Global Real Estate UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.299, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.883, "architecture_energy": 63.29, "architecture_maturity": 30.787, "architecture_confidence": 79.728, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.85, "rotation_up": 63.75, "upward_expansion": 84.62, "deceleration": 48.77, "rotation_down": 12.21, "downward_expansion": 13.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.614167, 48.192454, 47.513494, 47.128499 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 48.317501, "trend_reference": 46.690868, "distance_from_trend": 0.034838, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.605831, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.189915, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.825712, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.048854, "excess_performance": -0.002381, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034838, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028263, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.189915, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004007, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018257, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029002, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.048854, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.108287, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8999, "relative_activity": 1.165198, "balance": 2.108287, "dry_up": 3.140946, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030248, "annualized_volatility": 0.170378, "from_high_reference": -0.031228, "from_low_reference": 0.167712 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.690868, "fair_value_reference": 40.605831, "structural_low": 42.867007, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.011168, "positive_rate": 0.607143, "directional_follow_through": 0.607143, "median_excess_return": -0.001397, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.081364, "worst_return": -0.077496, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.001482, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.02693, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.092934, "worst_return": -0.078933, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.024095, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.033594, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.063848, "worst_return": -0.187301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -0.224781, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.339005, "energy": 39.438381, "activity_lines": [ 47.354665, 46.989152, 46.649358, 46.478001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.192501, "volume": 54862, "typical_volume": 5818.75, "trend": 46.219247, "fair_value": 40.339942, "relative_strength": 2.64812, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.363181, "energy": 66.090434, "activity_lines": [ 48.019666, 47.424988, 46.910385, 46.681575 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.299999, "volume": 26660, "typical_volume": 7061.45, "trend": 46.404232, "fair_value": 40.429451, "relative_strength": 1.589284, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.613054, "energy": 70.526573, "activity_lines": [ 48.594999, 47.843607, 47.179489, 46.880334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.497501, "volume": 6511, "typical_volume": 7370.15, "trend": 46.564206, "fair_value": 40.517119, "relative_strength": -1.247706, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.036661, "energy": 64.638307, "activity_lines": [ 48.662167, 48.05309, 47.361069, 47.015383 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.317501, "volume": 8999, "typical_volume": 7723.15, "trend": 46.690868, "fair_value": 40.605831, "relative_strength": -1.825712, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.883144, "energy": 63.290099, "activity_lines": [ 48.614167, 48.192454, 47.513494, 47.128499 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }