{ "ticker": { "uuid": "212dd9fc-c94f-4ca6-8d37-c8d8311dbfb8", "symbol": "ILB", "name": "iShares Government Inflation ETF", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 53.903, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.603, "architecture_energy": 16.016, "architecture_maturity": 34.951, "architecture_confidence": 77.371, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.48, "rotation_up": 27.62, "upward_expansion": 57.61, "deceleration": 83.64, "rotation_down": 35.43, "downward_expansion": 21.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 126.249334, 126.498528, 126.402534, 126.139348 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 125.949997, "trend_reference": 125.822907, "distance_from_trend": 0.00101, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 122.720829, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.026313, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.920226, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.008485, "excess_performance": -0.055221, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00101, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003523, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.026313, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00594, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049202, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05482, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008485, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.938129, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 107309, "relative_activity": 1.262861, "balance": 0.938129, "dry_up": 1.154959, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009652, "annualized_volatility": 0.03923, "from_high_reference": -0.088209, "from_low_reference": 0.066436 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 125.822907, "fair_value_reference": 122.720829, "structural_low": 118.103672, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.002583, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.012121, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.01492, "worst_return": -0.0238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.004475, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.007758, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.038569, "worst_return": -0.022325, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.005017, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.009273, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.015333, "worst_return": -0.037037, "sufficient": true 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false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018837, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.006341, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.018965, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017432, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": 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"up", "direction": 56.387758, "energy": 50.807049, "activity_lines": [ 126.914964, 126.774513, 126.366559, 126.073231 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 125.660004, "volume": 91784, "typical_volume": 88447.35, "trend": 125.734746, "fair_value": 122.600732, "relative_strength": 0.056966, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.793554, "energy": 17.314744, "activity_lines": [ 126.492906, 126.607096, 126.341237, 126.071083 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 126.660004, "volume": 101419, "typical_volume": 90012.35, "trend": 125.81715, "fair_value": 122.66376, "relative_strength": -1.41187, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.018952, "energy": 16.47413, "activity_lines": [ 126.468002, 126.622267, 126.409862, 126.130777 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 125.949997, "volume": 107309, "typical_volume": 84972.9, "trend": 125.822907, "fair_value": 122.720829, "relative_strength": -4.920226, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.602766, "energy": 16.015715, "activity_lines": [ 126.249334, 126.498528, 126.402534, 126.139348 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }