{ "ticker": { "uuid": "213af581-fbda-4ade-b46b-56e906dcb992", "symbol": "3171", "name": "Yem Chio Distribution Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.774, "architecture_energy": 29.356, "architecture_maturity": 35.186, "architecture_confidence": 58.584, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.62, "rotation_up": 44.13, "upward_expansion": 76.2, "deceleration": 65.28, "rotation_down": 24.21, "downward_expansion": 2.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.306666, 65.146462, 65.009289, 63.269325 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 64.800003, "trend_reference": 59.469544, "distance_from_trend": 0.089633, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.45575, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.563113, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.893898, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.445993, "excess_performance": 0.004621, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089633, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131507, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.563113, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097462, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128939, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052355, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.445993, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.149445, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 177037, "relative_activity": 0.531729, "balance": 2.149445, "dry_up": 0.279984, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059793, "annualized_volatility": 0.293926, "from_high_reference": -0.125848, "from_low_reference": 0.670461 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.469544, "fair_value_reference": 41.45575, "structural_low": 44.72014, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.014697, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.035056, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.118945, "worst_return": -0.100193, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.035639, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.099576, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.087613, "worst_return": -0.225183, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.25106, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.044363, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.427673, "worst_return": -0.292231, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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39.475266, "energy": 23.823964, "activity_lines": [ 64.434427, 65.090591, 64.288421, 61.268074 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 65.199997, "volume": 90001, "typical_volume": 490394.6, "trend": 57.332207, "fair_value": 40.705906, "relative_strength": -8.352133, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.421602, "energy": 23.589516, "activity_lines": [ 64.571402, 65.105549, 64.547353, 61.821925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.599998, "volume": 66530, "typical_volume": 466102.65, "trend": 58.045319, "fair_value": 40.954084, "relative_strength": -6.602564, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.894284, "energy": 25.720528, "activity_lines": [ 64.951499, 65.16037, 64.766864, 62.355331 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66.199997, "volume": 39310, "typical_volume": 372985.15, "trend": 58.787766, "fair_value": 41.207991, "relative_strength": -8.000652, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.015406, "energy": 31.172489, "activity_lines": [ 65.446664, 65.287539, 64.974765, 62.881439 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 64.800003, "volume": 177037, "typical_volume": 332945.9, "trend": 59.469544, "fair_value": 41.45575, "relative_strength": -12.893898, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.774111, "energy": 29.355651, "activity_lines": [ 65.306666, 65.146462, 65.009289, 63.269325 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }