{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2142b5a5-7532-4626-bba2-eadd18494830", "symbol": "COPH34", "name": "ConocoPhillips", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 6.267, "architecture_energy": 17.239, "architecture_maturity": 19.664, "architecture_confidence": 49.935, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.08, "rotation_up": 51.49, "upward_expansion": 32.1, "deceleration": 45.43, "rotation_down": 20.13, "downward_expansion": 23.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.897333, 48.766728, 48.955231, 49.505669 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 49.709999, "trend_reference": 49.310683, "distance_from_trend": 0.008098, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.320871, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.073166, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.06089, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.085256, "excess_performance": 0.142304, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008098, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052387, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.073166, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064177, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.050609, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.158672, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.085256, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.700953, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8923, "relative_activity": 0.546476, "balance": 0.700953, "dry_up": 0.589086, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064033, "annualized_volatility": 0.374785, "from_high_reference": -0.164406, "from_low_reference": 0.326048 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.310683, "fair_value_reference": 46.320871, "structural_low": 44.240002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.005081, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008854, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.429408, "worst_return": -0.078328, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.064766, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.100232, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.3524, "worst_return": -0.116674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.033371, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009225, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.691962, "worst_return": -0.098063, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 46.108257, "relative_strength": -5.272717, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.5491, "energy": 42.127034, "activity_lines": [ 46.750668, 47.880493, 49.453759, 49.28322 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 46.150002, "volume": 10045, "typical_volume": 18949.25, "trend": 48.322662, "fair_value": 46.147536, "relative_strength": -6.163161, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.910045, "energy": 50.086723, "activity_lines": [ 46.268002, 47.430183, 49.045803, 49.150602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.880001, "volume": 7169, "typical_volume": 18829.65, "trend": 48.554821, "fair_value": 46.190502, "relative_strength": 2.028642, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.110595, "energy": 37.287245, "activity_lines": [ 46.972002, 47.577456, 48.904224, 49.186559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.0, "volume": 6755, "typical_volume": 16915.8, "trend": 48.84676, "fair_value": 46.242494, "relative_strength": 6.468436, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.254946, "energy": 5.374354, "activity_lines": [ 48.424668, 48.058364, 48.961432, 49.344313 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.75, "volume": 15628, "typical_volume": 16576.45, "trend": 49.11222, "fair_value": 46.29, "relative_strength": 3.82312, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.966797, "energy": 13.384637, "activity_lines": [ 49.501334, 48.506546, 49.00029, 49.467102 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.709999, "volume": 8923, "typical_volume": 16328.25, "trend": 49.310683, "fair_value": 46.320871, "relative_strength": 5.06089, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.267301, "energy": 17.239158, "activity_lines": [ 49.897333, 48.766728, 48.955231, 49.505669 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }