{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21448ecd-847d-49f4-97cb-55973629bf86", "symbol": "688022", "name": "Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.168, "architecture_energy": 85.22, "architecture_maturity": 69.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.0, "rotation_up": 29.95, "upward_expansion": 21.55, "deceleration": 37.18, "rotation_down": 52.33, "downward_expansion": 92.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.804, 7.908, 9.118191, 10.654258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.18, "trend_reference": 12.604333, "distance_from_trend": -0.351017, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.579936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.474966, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.64938, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.489388, "excess_performance": -0.446184, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.351017, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161016, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.474966, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076647, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.406494, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043136, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.489388, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.171816, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8679356, "relative_activity": 0.4915, "balance": 0.171816, "dry_up": 0.638256, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089618, "annualized_volatility": 0.74539, "from_high_reference": -0.548066, "from_low_reference": 0.220896 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.604333, "fair_value_reference": 15.579936, "structural_low": 6.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.058753, "positive_rate": 0.32, "directional_follow_through": 0.68, "median_excess_return": -0.055045, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.335991, "worst_return": -0.250213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.143437, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.121198, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.56492, "worst_return": -0.357619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.185215, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.273195, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.159707, "worst_return": -0.426618, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.446829, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.099852, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.11273, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037889, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.006579, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065096, "active": false }, { 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"direction": -76.968275, "energy": 68.4588, "activity_lines": [ 7.678, 7.981636, 9.733286, 11.289742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.9, "volume": 9544628, "typical_volume": 18166207.9, "trend": 12.841667, "fair_value": 15.723397, "relative_strength": -41.766714, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.410081, "energy": 64.141638, "activity_lines": [ 7.685333, 7.902, 9.392905, 10.955011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.18, "volume": 8679356, "typical_volume": 17658898.5, "trend": 12.604333, "fair_value": 15.579936, "relative_strength": -40.64938, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.168094, "energy": 85.219691, "activity_lines": [ 7.804, 7.908, 9.118191, 10.654258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }