{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2147767c-eb23-4ed5-ab36-4d28122fbbf0", "symbol": "ESD", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD C", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.963, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.644, "architecture_energy": 61.262, "architecture_maturity": 63.926, "architecture_confidence": 72.693, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.52, "rotation_up": 53.28, "upward_expansion": 80.47, "deceleration": 68.7, "rotation_down": 27.71, "downward_expansion": 9.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.58428, 30.427175, 30.14601, 29.550994 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 31.3983, "trend_reference": 28.87373, "distance_from_trend": 0.087435, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.685469, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.325636, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.567076, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.129289, "excess_performance": 0.075978, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087435, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034851, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.325636, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004308, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.045671, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059859, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.129289, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.47367, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 339530, "relative_activity": 1.932466, "balance": 1.47367, "dry_up": 1.647997, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018947, "annualized_volatility": 0.132191, "from_high_reference": -0.003703, "from_low_reference": 0.230023 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.87373, "fair_value_reference": 23.685469, "structural_low": 25.747601, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.016796, "positive_rate": 0.717949, "directional_follow_through": 0.717949, "median_excess_return": 0.013183, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.063235, "worst_return": -0.085569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.042291, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.03785, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.126965, "worst_return": -0.066161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.093161, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.059235, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.168836, "worst_return": -0.156948, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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76.500605, "activity_lines": [ 30.28532, 29.9668, 28.955535, 28.563345 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 30.3216, "volume": 26714, "typical_volume": 178841.95, "trend": 28.24312, "fair_value": 23.117456, "relative_strength": 5.879517, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.260957, "energy": 67.603552, "activity_lines": [ 30.2995, 30.107442, 29.141651, 28.705711 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 29.8487, "volume": 15384, "typical_volume": 174989.15, "trend": 28.319763, "fair_value": 23.196714, "relative_strength": 4.481743, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.719562, "energy": 56.634984, "activity_lines": [ 30.137333, 30.112649, 29.271412, 28.809297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 30.362, "volume": 23146, "typical_volume": 159542.75, "trend": 28.40917, "fair_value": 23.279935, "relative_strength": 4.556377, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.293797, "energy": 53.211867, "activity_lines": [ 30.17576, 30.192389, 29.440321, 28.941054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.5714, "volume": 363554, "typical_volume": 155606.5, "trend": 28.51264, "fair_value": 23.361863, "relative_strength": 7.137589, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.490203, "energy": 61.085822, "activity_lines": [ 30.305293, 30.282753, 29.616237, 29.080553 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.2344, "volume": 374521, "typical_volume": 171400.85, "trend": 28.60285, "fair_value": 23.440754, "relative_strength": 5.726332, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.416777, "energy": 57.471474, "activity_lines": [ 30.304173, 30.282416, 29.746703, 29.191634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.126301, "volume": 302289, "typical_volume": 173048.9, "trend": 28.678687, "fair_value": 23.518041, "relative_strength": 4.735131, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.013522, "energy": 54.408715, "activity_lines": [ 30.257067, 30.255682, 29.854965, 29.289921 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.0884, "volume": 141858, "typical_volume": 172326.7, "trend": 28.761387, "fair_value": 23.596691, "relative_strength": 2.790586, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.960443, "energy": 43.313176, "activity_lines": [ 30.210347, 30.220504, 29.945815, 29.38087 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.3983, "volume": 339530, "typical_volume": 175697.8, "trend": 28.87373, "fair_value": 23.685469, "relative_strength": 4.567076, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.643549, "energy": 61.261583, "activity_lines": [ 30.58428, 30.427175, 30.14601, 29.550994 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }