{ "ticker": { "uuid": "214debc5-1513-4cb1-b229-2087017410e9", "symbol": "HODLV", "name": "21Shares Crypto Basket Equal Weight (HODLV) ETP", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.122, "architecture_energy": 37.737, "architecture_maturity": 39.806, "architecture_confidence": 66.942, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.28, "rotation_up": 27.06, "upward_expansion": 17.43, "deceleration": 66.66, "rotation_down": 34.75, "downward_expansion": 62.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.138847, 19.005065, 19.782174, 20.425098 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 19.0875, "trend_reference": 21.755027, "distance_from_trend": -0.122617, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.475858, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.186931, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.905467, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.132922, "excess_performance": -0.186234, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.122617, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161906, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.186931, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192128, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.369055, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077092, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.132922, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.539503, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 130, "relative_activity": 0.484532, "balance": 0.539503, "dry_up": 0.3224, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058564, "annualized_volatility": 0.394494, "from_high_reference": -0.593632, "from_low_reference": 0.079995 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.755027, "fair_value_reference": 23.475858, "structural_low": 17.6737, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.00117, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.04915, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.372563, "worst_return": -0.189535, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.069412, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.113761, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.32484, "worst_return": -0.116567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.312013, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.361847, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.143251, "worst_return": 0.128905, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.288949, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098854, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.360824, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008341, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.2131, "volume": 40, "typical_volume": 35.8, "trend": 9.061443, "fair_value": 12.137044, "relative_strength": -9.504309, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 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21.345709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.0019, "volume": 81, "typical_volume": 340.15, "trend": 22.888087, "fair_value": 23.287116, "relative_strength": -37.127783, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.879324, "energy": 58.85582, "activity_lines": [ 18.912206, 19.117403, 20.241336, 21.071713 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.598101, "volume": 39, "typical_volume": 338.0, "trend": 22.570357, "fair_value": 23.351013, "relative_strength": -34.569842, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.944893, "energy": 42.014582, "activity_lines": [ 19.179087, 19.088905, 20.11082, 20.859456 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.9296, "volume": 96, "typical_volume": 320.15, "trend": 22.179293, "fair_value": 23.412703, "relative_strength": -36.897828, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.737469, "energy": 40.501904, "activity_lines": [ 19.174514, 19.005064, 19.929751, 20.624569 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.0875, "volume": 130, "typical_volume": 268.3, "trend": 21.755027, "fair_value": 23.475858, "relative_strength": -36.905467, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.121702, "energy": 37.73687, "activity_lines": [ 19.138847, 19.005065, 19.782174, 20.425098 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }